Bearish view
- Sell the EUR/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.050.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.0635.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bullish view
- Set a buy-stop at 1.0580 and a take-profit at 1.0635.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.0480.
The EUR/USD retreated below an important support level after the latest Federal Reserve decision. The pair retreated to a low od 1.0521 on Thursday morning as focus now shifted to the upcoming Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data.
FOMC decision
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) concluded its two-day monetary policy meeting on Wednesday. In the statement, the bank decided to leave interest rates unchanged at the 21-year high of between 5.25% and 5.50%.
The Fed will also continue with its quantitative tightening policy, which has helped it reduce its Treasuries holdings by over $1 trillion. In his press conference, Jerome Powell said that the bank would be data-dependent when determining whether to hike in December.
There will be two non-farm payrolls (NFP) and inflation reports ahead of the next meeting. The first report will come out on Friday, when the US will publish its NFP data. Economists believe that the economy remained strong in October, with the unemployment rate falling to 3.7%.
Powell also expressed concerns about the growing geopolitical risks in the economy. Precisely, he pointed to the ongoing war between Israel and Hamas. In a statement on Tuesday, the World Bank warned that the war could push the price of crude oil to over $150 in the coming months.
The Fed’s meeting mirrored that of the European Central Bank (ECB). In its meeting last week, the ECB decided to pause its rate hikes for the first time in eleven meetings. With the bloc’s inflation falling and growth stalling, the bank will likely not hike rates again this year.
The next important EUR/USD news will be the upcoming German jobs numbers. Economists see the unemployment rate rising to 5.8% now that the economy is in a recession.
EUR/USD technical analysis
The EUR/USD exchange rate has been under pressure in the past few days. The pair dropped and retested the important support at 1.0521, the lowest swing on October 26th. It also retreated slightly below the lower side of the ascending channel.
The pair has moved below the 50-period moving average while the MACD has dropped below the neutral level. It also remains below the Woodie pivot point at 1.0585. Therefore, the outlook for the pair is bearish, with the next level to watch being the first Woodie pivot at 1.050.
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