- The euro/dollar pair “EUR/USD” gave back some of its earlier gains on Wednesday as markets pared back some of the big moves seen the day before, and after data from the eurozone showed disappointing industrial production numbers.
- Recently, EUR/USD had rallied to the 1.0888 resistance level, its highest since February, on the back of weaker-than-expected US inflation data, which shook up expectations for future US interest rate hikes. However, the pair then settled around the 1.0845 level at the time of writing.
Eurostat, the European Union's statistics office, said industrial production in the eurozone fell by 1.1% on a monthly basis in September, beating expectations of a 1.0% decline and representing a deterioration from August's 0.6% growth. Also, Industrial production fell by 6.9% year-on-year in September, easing from a previous reading of -5.1% and below expectations of -6.3%. meanwhile, the disappointing data conflicts with the recent market narrative that suggests that "peak pessimism" has been reached in terms of the eurozone economy and the euro's price. Obviously, this narrative had partly underpinned the recent rally in EUR/USD to above the 1.08 resistance level.
Overall, the euro was weaker against all its G10 peers during Wednesday's session. However, the decline in EUR/USD was also, in part, a reaction to the massive 1.68% gains recorded the day before, and suggests that there was an element of profit-taking by market participants. Commenting on the performance, Charalambos Pissouros, an analyst at XM.com, said: "The dollar retreated across the board yesterday after the more dovish-than-expected US inflation data added further credibility to investors' belief. Moreover, the Federal Reserve's tightening cycle may be over, even though Fed Chair Powell and his colleagues have been downplaying such expectations recently.”
According to an official announcement, the headline inflation rate for the US Consumer Price Index fell to 3.2% on an annual basis in October from 3.7% in September, while the core rate fell to 4.0% on an annual basis from 4.1%, with expectations being higher by only a decimal point. Also,“Along with the dollar, Treasury yields also fell, with the interest rate on 10-year bonds falling by about 20 basis points, while according to Fed funds futures, the probability of another Fed hike fell to zero,” the XM.com analyst added. Meanwhile, investors are now expecting approximately 100 basis points. And interest rate cuts for next year, with an 80% chance that the first cut will be delivered in May.”
EUR/USD Today Expectations and Analysis
There has been no change in the performance of the EUR/USD currency pair since almost yesterday, as it maintained the gains of rebounding upwards after the US inflation numbers. It is an important move to break the general downward trend. Therefore, as we mentioned before, the trend will change steadily upward by moving towards the psychological resistance level of 1.1000. On the other hand, according to the performance on the daily chart below, the bears in the currency pair have returned towards the support levels of 1.0770 and 1.0650, a threat to the current correction and a return to stronger bear control.
Today, the euro/dollar will be affected by whether investors are willing to take risks or not. In addition to the reaction to new statements by European Central Bank Governor Lagarde. Then the announcement of the number of weekly US jobless claims, the reading of the Philadelphia Industrial Index and the US industrial production rate, then statements by some members of the US Central Bank’s policy.
EUR/USD Price Predictions for Upcoming Days
The EUR/USD pair continues to trade several levels above the 100-hour moving average despite Wednesday's pullback. As a result, the EUR/USD pair still has more room to rise before reaching oversold levels on the 14-hour RSI. On the near-term, the EUR/USD pair appears to be trading within a limited downtrend channel. The MACD on that time frame also seems to support the downtrend after completing a bearish crossover. Therefore, bears will look to extend the current declines towards 1.0799 or lower to support at 1.0741. On the other hand, bulls will look to pounce on any pullbacks around 1.0891 or higher to resistance at 1.0943.
On the long-term, the EUR/USD pair appears to have completed a bullish breakout from the ascending channel. The daily MACD also seems to support the uptrend after completing a bullish crossover. Therefore, bulls will look to ride the current winning streak towards 1.1008 or higher to resistance at 1.1152. On the other hand, bears will target long-term profits around 1.0695 or lower to support at 1.0542.
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