Crude oil markets embarked on a volatile journey during Thursday's session, reflecting the characteristic noise and volatility that often accompany this commodity.
The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil market initially made an attempt to rally, only to find itself grappling with resistance around the $82.50 level. Concurrently, there is substantial support visible at the 200-Day Exponential Moving Average. The market seems to be shaping a pattern reminiscent of an inverted hammer, akin to the previous session's price action.
A breakout above the high point of the inverted candlestick from Wednesday could potentially lead the market to target the 50-Day EMA above. The $85 level looms ahead as a pivotal area of interest. Traders will closely monitor this juncture, as a breach could pave the way for an extended move towards the $90 level. Conversely, a dip below the $80 level could trigger significant selling pressure.
In the Brent oil markets, a similar narrative unfolds. Initial attempts at a rally gave way to hesitancy, with the market oscillating around the 200-Day EMA and the psychologically significant $85 level. This level is noteworthy for a gap in the market, and now that the futures markets have filled it, the question is whether it will serve as a support or resistance zone.
Willing to Buy Oil
- A breakdown below the hammer formation from a couple of months ago, located just below current levels, could potentially send the market tumbling towards the $80 level.
- Conversely, a breakthrough above the 200-Day EMA may set the stage for an ascent towards $90 and ultimately $93.
The prevailing sentiment suggests that the market is attempting to establish a consolidation zone, and it's possible that we find ourselves at the lower boundary of this range as we navigate the longer-term trajectory. Because of this, I am SLIGHTLY bullish, but not willing to put a ton of money into the market.
At the end of the day, the crude oil markets exhibited their characteristic volatility and uncertainty during Thursday's session. The pivotal levels of $82.50 in WTI Crude Oil and $85 in Brent Crude are closely monitored, potentially shaping the future direction. While the inverted hammer pattern suggests a degree of uncertainty, a clear breakout above or below these levels will likely provide valuable insight into the market's longer-term prospects.
Potential signal: I am willing to buy oil here, but I would use something like ¼ the usual size. The stop would be $80 level. I am aiming for $85.12 above.
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