My previous BTC/USD signal on 28th November was not triggered as there was no bearish price action at the first touches of the two nearest resistance levels that day.
Today’s BTC/USD Signals
Risk 0.75% per trade.
Trades may only be taken prior to 5pm Tokyo time Friday.
Long Trade Ideas
- Go long after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $37,666 or $37,316.
- Put the stop loss $100 below the local swing low.
- Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
- Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
Short Trade Ideas
- Go short after a bearish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $38,659 or $39,371.
- Put the stop loss $100 above the local swing high.
- Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
- Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
BTC/USD Analysis
I wrote in my previous BTC/USD analysis two days ago that the price was continuing its wide, bullish consolidation. I was correct about this, but the levels I have were not useful.
The wide bullish consolidation is continuing, with the price briefly making a new 18-month high yesterday but failing to hold on to any meaningful gains.
I thought that it would take a daily close above $38,000 to trigger a truly strong bullish move and that seems to have been a good call as we have not had a daily close above that level in recent days.
Due to the long-term bullish trend and the bullish short-term price action, I will look for long trades in Bitcoin, with the market environment currently supporting such risk-on trades.
One approach could be going long after a daily close above $38,000 or the next resistance level at $38,659.
I also see the support level at $37,316 as likely to give a strong bounce if reached today, so that could be interesting for shorter-term traders, or swing traders using pullback trading strategies.
Regarding the US Dollar, there will be a release of Core PCE Price Index and Unemployment Claims data at 1:30pm London time.
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