Bullish view
Bearish view
- Set a sell-stop at 0.6500 and a take-profit at 0.6400.
- Add a stop-loss at 0.6600.
The Australian dollar surged to its highest point since August as the market reacted to encouraging events from the United States. The AUD/USD pair soared by over 3% last week, making it the best week since November 2022. It was trading at 0.6512 on Monday, 3,97% above the lowest point this year.
RBA rate decision ahead
The AUD/USD exchange rate made a strong comeback last week after the relatively dovish decision by the Federal Reserve. The bank decided to leave interest rates unchanged between 5.25% and 5.50%.
In the accompanying statement, the bank left the door open for another 0.25% rate hike. However, in his press conference, Jerome Powell said that the bank would maintain its data dependence. He also said that the bank was concerned about the tightening market conditions.
The other important catalyst for the AUD/USD pair was last Friday’s non-farm payrolls (NFP) data. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the American economy added 150k jobs in October, lower than the median estimate of 180k.
The unemployment rate rose to 3.9% during the month while the labor participation rate dipped slightly. Therefore, these numbers mean that the labor market is softening. The same is true with the manufacturing and services sectors.
Therefore, analysts now believe that the Fed is done hiking interest rates. This explains why the US dollar index (DXY) has pulled back slightly and why American equities have surged. The Dow Jones and Nasdaq 100 indices had their best week in months.
The next important AUD/USD news will be the upcoming meeting by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Like the Fed, Bank of England, and European Central Banks (ECB), most analysts expect that the bank will leave interest rates unchanged. A hawkish tone will lead to more Aussie rally.
AUD/USD technical analysis
The Australian dollar has been in a downward trend, helped by the strong US dollar. Along the way, the pair has formed a downward channel, which is shown in green. Most recently, it has formed an inverted head and shoulders pattern, which is usually a bullish sign.
The pair is also consolidating at the 50-week and 25-week moving averages while the MACD is still below the neutral point. Therefore, the outlook for the AUDUSD pair is bullish, with the next point to watch being the upper side of the descending channel at 0.6750.
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