My previous signal on 21st November was not triggered, as there was no bullish price action when the support level which I had identified at $0.6535 was first reached.
Today’s AUD/USD Signals
Risk 0.75%
Trades must be entered before 5pm Tokyo time Thursday.
Short Trade Ideas
- Short entry following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of $0.6684 or $0.6699.
- Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
- Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
Long Trade Ideas
- Long entry following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of $0.6600, $0.6590, $0.6572, or $0.6546.
- Put stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
- Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
AUD/USD Analysis
I wrote in my previous forecast on Tuesday last week that the AUD/USD currency pair was likely to rise higher, so I thought that bullish bounce at the nearest support level of $0.6535 would probably be a good opportunity to enter a new long trade.
As it turned out, it was a down day, but the next day the price did turn bullish from this level.
The technical picture was very bullish, due to a long-term bearish trend in the US Dollar which has helped to continue to push the price of this currency pair higher. The price reached a new 2-month high just a few hours ago, but the short-term action has turned bearish following the release of lower-than-expected Australian inflation data, reducing the chance of any further rate hikes by the RBA within the current tightening cycle.
The problem for bears is that the US Dollar remains broadly weak, so the price may not fall much further even with the Aussie being weak. There are also several support levels nearby.
There may be better currencies to use to trade the weak Aussie today.
If the price falls to $0.6600, there may be an opportunity for a long scalp trade there.
Concerning the USD, there will be a release of Preliminary GDP data at 1:30pm London time. There is nothing of high importance scheduled today regarding the AUD.
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