Bearish view
- Sell the AUD/USD pair and set a take-profit at 0.6285.
- Add a stop-loss at 0.6385.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bullish view
- Set a buy-stop at 0.6340 and a take-profit at 0.6450.
- Add a stop-loss at 0.6300.
The AUD/USD exchange rate retreated as traders waited for the upcoming Federal Reserve rate decision. The pair fell to the important support at 0.6315, a few points below this week’s high of 0.6382.
Fed decision ahead
The Australian dollar retreated as concerns about the country’s and China’s economy. Economic data published on Tuesday revealed that China’s manufacturing sector continued contracting in October. The figure dropped to 49.5, lower than the expected 50.2, signaling that the sector is still in trouble.
China’s economic numbers are important for Australia because of the volume of goods that the country buys. Meanwhile, a report by S&P Global showed that the country’s manufacturing PMI remained in a contraction zone in October. It came in at 47.5, lower than the median estimate of 48.
The AUD/USD pair will be in the spotlight on Wednesday for two more events. ADP, the payroll processing company, will publish the latest estimate of private payrolls data. Economists polled by Reuters believe that the private sector created 150k jobs in October after adding 89k in the previous month.
The ADP jobs report will come two days before the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) publishes the official Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data. In the past, the two jobs numbers tend to diverge.
The next important AUD/USD news will be the upcoming Federal Reserve decision. Judging by the September meeting and recent statements by Fed officials, the bank will likely leave rates intact between 5.25% and 5.50%.
Fed officials will have the bond market in mind when making this decision. Long-term bond yields have surged to the highest level in years. The yield of the 10-year stands at 4.87% while the 30-year sits at over 5%. At the same time, the spread between the 10 and 2-year yields has narrowed to minus 16.4.
AUD/USD technical analysis
The Australian dollar has recoiled this week. This decline was important because it happened after the pair retested the important resistance at 0.6383, which coincides with the descending trendline. This trendline joins the highest swings since September 29th.
The pair has moved a few points below the 50-period and 25-period moving averages. It has also formed a descending triangle pattern. Therefore, the outlook for the pair is bearish, with the next level to watch being at 0.6283, the lower side of the triangle pattern.
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