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USD/TRY Forecast: Expectations that Interest Rates Will Rise by 2.5 percent

The pair is expected to record gains as long as it settles within the ascending price channel range. 

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    Today's recommendation on the TRY/USD

    Risk 0.50%.

    Best buying entry points

    • Entering a buy deal with a pending order from the 27.75 level.
    • Place a stop loss closing point below the 27.55 level.
    • Move the stop loss to the entry area and follow the profit as the price moves by 50 points.
    • Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 70 points and leave the rest of the contracts until the strong resistance levels at 28.00.

    Best-selling entry points

    • Entering a sell deal with a pending order from the 25.28 levels.
    • The best points to place a stop loss are closing the highest level of 28.39.
    • Move the stop loss to the entry area and follow the profit as the price moves by 50 points.
    • Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 70 points and leave the rest of the contracts until the support level of 27.90.

    The price of the Turkish Lira stabilized against the US dollar near its lowest levels ever during early trading on Thursday morning. Investors followed a report issued by BTC HSBC analysts, which revealed expectations that the next rate hike in Turkey would be only 250 basis points, as the report indicated that the monetary tightening policy was approaching its peak. The Turkish Central Bank had managed a major shift in The monetary policy over the past four months was based on raising the interest rate along with some other measures, as the interest rate was raised from levels of 8.5% last June to the currently recorded 30%. It was expected that the central bank would continue to raise interest rates to 35% levels by the end of this year. Through successive interest rate hikes, the Central Bank aims to control high inflation rates, which reached 60% last September, as part of a government plan that aims to reduce inflation to single digits by 2026.

    In other news, the Turkish Central Bank issued a statement revealing that inflation in the housing sector recorded a decline on an annual basis, as annual prices recorded a decline of 90.26% last August compared to the same month last year.

    USD/TRY Technical Analysis

    On the technical level, the dollar pair against the Turkish lira stabilized near its highest level ever during early trading this morning, recording levels of 28.10, after breaching the psychological levels at 28.00 during this week’s trading. The pair continued trading within an ascending price channel on the 240-minute time frame shown in the chart.

    Currently, if the pair goes up, it targets the resistance levels concentrated at 28.25 and 28.50, respectively, while if the pair declines, it targets the support levels concentrated at 27.75 and 27.50, respectively. The price is moving above the 50 and 200 moving averages on the daily time frame, as well as on the four-hour and 60-minute time frames, indicating the buyers’ control and the return of the general upward trend recorded by the pair. The pair is expected to record gains as long as it settles within the ascending price channel range. Please adhere to the numbers in the recommendation, while maintaining capital management.

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    Amir Issa
    About Amir Issa
    Economic editor , more than 12 years experience in the global financial markets and in the field of currency and metals trading. I supervised on many sites related to investment, finance and training in the field of forex and global exchanges.
     

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