The NASDAQ 100 has seen quite a bit of volatility during the month of September, but it looks like we are trying to turn around at the very end of the month and save what looks like a larger “bullish flag. That being said, there are a lot of noisy behavior just waiting to happen, therefore the month of October will probably continue to be very volatile.
One of the biggest issues will be the interest rate situation in the United States. After all, as long as the interest rates continue to show signs of strength, does make people a little bit hesitant to jump in and start buying riskier technology stocks, which of course makes up a majority of the NASDAQ 100. However, we have recovered a bit near the 14,600 level at the end of the month, and it could kick off a bit of a recovery. That being said, if we break down below the low of the month, then it’s very likely that we go looking toward the 50-Week EMA, which sits near the 13,750 region, and of course is something that a lot of people pay close attention to. This is a scenario where I think you continue to see a lot of volatility and you do have to be cautious.
- If we can break above the top of the last weekly candlestick for the month, then it’s likely that the NASDAQ 100 is looking toward the 15,250 level, and if we can break above there, then we could start to see the market accelerate.
- However, a lot of what people are paying attention to would be the interest rate situation in the bond market, which continues to go higher.
- The short end of the yield curve continues to keep traders on their toes, so I think most of the month is going to be plagued by volatility. If we were to drop down below the 13,750 level, then we will have entered crash mode.
Pay attention to the same stocks as you always do, including Amazon, Microsoft, Nvidia, Apple, Tesla, and of course Alphabet. If the stocks go higher, it’s impossible for the index to fall. Of course, the exact opposite is true as well, so if the stock start getting hammered, you can expect this index to be very rough.
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