Bullish view
- Buy the GBP/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.2230.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.2100.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bearish view
- Sell the GBP/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.2065 (October 26th low).
- Add a stop-loss at 1.2230.
The GBP/USD exchange rate drifted upwards in the overnight session as the US dollar index (DXY) took a breather. The pair rose to a high of 1.2155 as the DXY crashed by 0.40% to $106. Sterling has risen by over 67 basis points from its lowest point on Friday.
FOMC and BoE decisions ahead
The GBP/USD pair continued rising as investors embraced a risk-on sentiment. In the United States, the Dow Jones and the Nasdaq 100 indices rose by more than 480 and 125 points, respectively.
The pair rose even after another set of weak economic data from the United States. The most recent dat by the Bank of England (BoE) showed hat mortgage approvals crashed hard in September as interest rates remained at an elevated level.
Net mortgage approvals dropped to 43,300 in September from the previous 45,400. Net approvals for remortgages also dropped to 20,600 during the month. These numbers mean that the British economy is slowing at a faster pace than expected.
The most important GBP/USD news will be the upcoming FOMC and Bank of England (BoE) interest rate decisions. With America’s bond yields rising, most analysts believe that the Fed will maintain rates between 5.25% and 5.50%.
The Fed has moved rates from zero in 2022 to the highest level in more than two decades. It has done that in its bid to bring inflation downwards. The headline Consumer Price index (CPI) has dropped to 3.6%.
Similarly, the Bank of England is expected to leave interest rates intact on Thursday. The bank’s challenge is that the UK economy is going through a period of stagflation. The economy is not growing while the headline inflation stood above 6% in September.
The GBP/USD pair will also react to the latest US non-farm payrolls (NFP) data scheduled on Friday.
GBP/USD technical analysis
The GBP to USD exchange rate drifted upwards on Tuesday morning. It has moved to the Woodie pivot point and slightly above the 25-period and 50-period moving averages. It is also above the ascending trendline that connects the lowest swings on October 4th and October 26th.
The Ultimate Oscillator also moved upwards. Therefore, the outlook for the pair is neutral ahead of the Fed and BoE decisions. In this case, the key support and resistance levels to watch will be at 1.2090 and 1.2230.
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