Bearish view
- Sell the EUR/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.0500.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.0650.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bullish view
- Set a buy-stop at 1.0610 and a take-profit at 1.0660.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.0520.
The EUR/USD exchange rate reacted mildly to last week’s European Central Bank (ECB) decision and the latest US PCE inflation numbers. The pair was trading at 1.0565 on Monday morning, a few points above last week’s low of 1.0523.
Federal Reserve decision ahead
Last week was an eventful one for the EUR/USD as the US published important economic numbers and the ECB delivered its interest rate decision. On Thursday, data by the US Statistics Agency revealed that the economy fired on all cylinders as it expanded by 4.9% in Q3. That increase was better than what analysts were expecting.
The other report showed that the personal consumer expenditure (PCE) inflation gauge remained at 3.7% in September. The inflation figure meant that inflation was still stubbornly during the month.
Meanwhile, in Europe, the European Central Bank (ECB) delivered its interest rate decision on Thursday. It left interest rates unchanged at 4% in its first pause in ten meetings. In a statement, the bank insisted that interest rates will remain at an elevated level for longer.
Looking ahead, this will be another important week for the pair. First, the Federal Reserve will deliver its decision on Wednesday. Most economists believe that the bank will decide to leave rates unchanged between 5.25% and 5.50%. Analysts will focus on the tone to gauge whether the bank will hike again.
The Fed’s decision comes at an important time for the market. Inflation remains above its target of 2.0% while bond yields have surged to the highest level in years. There are signs that consumer spending is slowing.
The other important EUR/USD news will be the latest non-farm payrolls (NFP) data set for Friday. These numbers will provide more information about the state of the labor market.
EUR/USD forecast
The EUR/USD exchange rate has remained in a consolidation phase in the past few days. As a result, it is consolidating at the Woodie pivot point. It is also hovering at the 50-period and 25-period Arnaud Legoux Moving Averages (ALMA).
The pair also remains slightly above the lower side of the ascending channel shown in green. Therefore, the outlook for the pair is neutral for now. The key support level to watch will be the lower side of the ascending channel at 1.0525. A break below that level will see it drop to the next support at 1.0495.
On the flip side, the alternative is a situation where the pair rises to the first resistance point of the Woodie pivot point at 1.0650.
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