- During last week's trading, the bulls' attempts to push the EUR/USD pair higher failed, as the gains did not exceed the resistance level of 1.0695.
- Nearby, the currency pair soon returned to its broader downward path with losses towards the support level of 1.0521, before closing trading stable around the 1.0565 level.
- As we mentioned before, the US dollar will remain the strongest, with demand for it as safe havens, in addition to the superiority of the US Federal Reserve over the rest of the global central banks in the process of tightening monetary policy.
Weekly Data in Focus
In this regard, last week, there was a meeting of the European Central Bank, and market participants were waiting to see the message of one of the most important central banks in the world. As the ECB is a relatively young central bank, this is particularly important as it has faced many challenges over the years. Although, there was not much to mention until 2008 when the major financial crisis began in the United States, the European sovereign crisis began with the common currency at stake.
Moreover, the pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, as well as very high inflation, and we still have just a small picture of what the ECB has to contend with. Also, what is important here is that there is no fiscal union in Europe, and therefore the measures taken by the European Central Bank are always less effective than those taken by other global central banks (for example, the Federal Reserve Bank in the United States and the Bank of England).
The European Central Bank met in Greece last week, perhaps to celebrate the strong economic performance Greece has achieved since the sovereign crisis. Unanimously, Markets expected that the European Central Bank would suspend its work. This was so, but the meeting left a cautious message despite persistent inflation fears.
The Question Is: What Did the European Central Bank Do?
The European Central Bank kept key interest rates stable after ten consecutive interest rate increases. As, the risk at the meeting was that the central bank would abandon its statement on flat core CPI inflation. If this happens, the risk is that market expectations regarding the future path of interest rates will be revised. More precisely, the recent market curve could have changed its slope in a downward manner.
Furthermore, this did not happen, even though the European Central Bank statement contained within it what satisfied the bulls and the bears. One might say it was a boring ECB meeting without exciting comments.
According to Forex market trading, the euro price did not react much (i.e., most euro pairs were slightly negative a few hours after the press conference ended), it may still be so. We must keep in mind that the stalled ECB is facing inflation pressures that are falling much more quickly than in other parts of the world. In other words, markets will not hesitate to price future cuts earlier than they are now if inflation declines faster. Overall, it was a quiet ECB press conference but with little dovish message. Finally, It remains to be seen whether euro bulls will try to push the single currency lower as the trading year ends.
EUR/USD Today Expectations and Analysis
According to the performance on the daily chart below, the currency pair EUR/USD is still on a downward path. Clearly, the pair moving towards and below the psychological support level of 1.0500 will remain supportive of the bears’ control and portends a stronger downward move. Especially, if the US Central Bank meeting this week confirms the path of raising US interest rates to in addition to stronger than expected numbers for US jobs. Therefore, if this happens, the currency pair may move towards the support levels of 1.0440 and 1.0380, respectively, which are areas that will move the technical indicators towards strong saturation levels for selling. On the other hand, over the same time, a breach of the downward trend of the EUR/USD pair may occur if it moves towards the resistance levels of 1.0675, 1.0730, and 1.0800, respectively.
Shortly, the euro will be affected today by the announcement of the German inflation reading, in addition to the GDP growth rate there.
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