Bearish view
- Sell the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 29,000.
- Add a stop-loss at 31,000.
- Timeline: 1 day.
Bullish view
- Set a buy-stop at 30,300 and a take-profit at 31,000.
- Add a stop-loss at 29,000.
The BTC/USD pair continued rallying during the weekend as hopes of a spot Bitcoin ETF continued. Bitcoin surged to a multi-month high of $30,400, meaning it has jumped by more than $5,000 from the lowest level in September.
Bitcoin ETF hopes
Bitcoin surge is in contrast with what happened across other assets. American stocks have retreated, with the Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100, and S&P 500 indices falling by more than 1% on Friday. Companies like Tesla and Tesla have crashed by double-digits from their highest level this year.
At the same time, the bond market has come under intense strain as the 10-year and 30-year have jumped to 4.91% and 5.07%, their highest levels in over two decades. Bond yields jump when prices are retreating.
American bonds have plunged as the Federal Reserve continues its tightening and as the budget deficit widens. Data published last week showed that the deficit jumped to $1.7 trillion, up by 27% from a year earlier. This deficit widened as government spending rose and tax receipts fell.
Bitcoin’s jump has also mirrored that of gold, which is often seen as a safe haven. After falling to $1,800 in August, gold has jumped to almost $2,000 as demand from central banks rise.
The main catalyst for Bitcoin is the ongoing hopes of a Bitcoin ETF. In a statement last week, Gary Gensler said that the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) was still reviewing the most recent applications.
Analysts at JPMorgan said that they believe that the SEC will approve the ETFs in the coming months. Therefore, hopes are that the price will continue rising ahead of the ETF launch and then retreat as traders sell the news.
BTC/USD technical analysis
Bitcoin has been in a strong bullish trend after bottoming in September. As it rose, Bitcoin has moved above important resistance levels like 28,628, the highest swing on October 2nd. It is now sitting at the important resistance level at 30,000, which is a crucial psychological point.
Bitcoin has also remained above the 50-period moving average, signaling that buyers are in control. At the same time, the volume has moved downwards while the two lines of the MACD have formed a bearish crossover.
Therefore, Bitcoin will likely retreat slightly in the near term as investors start taking profits. Alternatively, it will remain in this range as traders wait for the next ETF news.
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