- During Thursday's trading session, the USD/JPY witnessed a modest dip, initially attempting a rally before relinquishing its gains.
- However, the overarching sentiment in the market remains decidedly bullish, and it appears that the dollar is simply biding its time before resuming its overall uptrend.
- Nevertheless, concerns have surfaced regarding the potential intervention by the Bank of Japan (BoJ). It's important to note that past central bank interventions have had limited success, dampening the impact of such worries.
As the US dollar continues to face selling pressure during the US session, it's clear that buying opportunities are beginning to emerge. A pivotal point to watch is the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average, currently hovering around the ¥144 level and on an upward trajectory. This moving average marks a key indicator for traders, as it signifies the potential return to a consolidation area that had held immense significance for an extended period.
In the grand scheme of things, the dollar's ascension toward the ¥150 level appears plausible, primarily driven by the interest rate differential. However, it's crucial to exercise caution in position sizing given the prevailing market volatility. This caveat isn't limited to this particular currency pair; it's a prudent approach for navigating all currency pairs in the current climate.
The Prevailing Trend Suggests a Continued Uptrend
It's worth emphasizing that the US dollar is unlikely to face a substantial sell-off, especially in the near term, given the ongoing quantitative easing measures undertaken by the Bank of Japan. While Tokyo may engage in occasional jawboning, it's unlikely to significantly alter the broader trend.
A potential scenario to watch is if the dollar breaks below the ¥144.50 level, which could raise the possibility of a deeper correction. Nonetheless, such an occurrence is likely to attract value hunters, eyeing the opportunity to acquire "cheap US dollars." In fact, we may have that opportunity now.
In conclusion, the US dollar remains on a rollercoaster ride, navigating short-term fluctuations while maintaining a long-term bullish bias. Traders should remain vigilant and prepared for potential buying opportunities as the dollar consolidates. While the road ahead may be marked by volatility, the prevailing trend suggests a continued uptrend in the US dollar, making it a market worth considering for traders.
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