Bearish view
- Sell the EUR/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.0650.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.0770.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bullish view
- Set a buy-stop at 1.0740 and a take-profit at 1.0820.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.0650.
The EUR/USD will be a bit volatile on Wednesday and Thursday as traders react to important events from the US and Europe. The pair was trading at 1.0732, a few points above this month’s low of 1.0688.
US inflation and ECB decision ahead
The EUR/USD exchange rate moved sideways in the overnight session as the price of crude oil continued rising. Brent, the global benchmark, rose to $92.30 while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is slowly approaching $90.
The impact of the rising crude oil prices is that it could push inflation significantly higher for longer. In the United States, the price of gasoline jumped to $3.8, which could lead to higher inflation for longer.
The next key EUR/USD news will be the upcoming US consumer inflation data. Economists expect the data to show that the headline and core inflation remained above 2.0% in August.
Precisely, economists believe that inflation rose from 3.2% in July to 3.6% in August. They also expect that the core inflation dropped from 4.7% to 4.2%. These numbers will be much higher than the Fed’s target of 2.0%.
The EUR/USD pair will next react to the upcoming interest rate decision by the European Central Bank (ECB). The bank is in a dilemma with the economy slowing and inflation remaining higher than the 2% target.
Recent data showed that the European economy is not doing well. Germany, the bloc’s powerhouse, has contracted in the past two straight quarters and analysts are less optimistic about the current quarter.
At the same time, inflation remains above 5%, higher than the ECB’s target of 2.0%. Therefore, analysts have mixed opinions about what to expect. Some see the bank leaving rates unchanged while others see it hiking by 0.25%.
EUR/USD technical analysis
Th EUR/USD pair has been in a downward trend after peaking at 1.1274 in July. In this period, the exchange rate formed a descending channel shown in green. The price remains below the 50-period moving average and the Ichimoku cloud. It is also slightly below the key resistance at 1.0764, the lowest swing on August 25th.
Therefore, the pair will likely continue falling, with the next reference level being at 1.0650. The stop-loss of this trade will be at 1.0770.
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