Bearish view
- Sell the AUD/USD pair and set a take-profit at 0.6400.
- Add a stop-loss at 0.6517.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bullish view
- Set a buy-stop at 0.6460 and a take-profit at 0.6517.
- Add a stop-loss at 0.6400.
The AUD/USD exchange rate was relatively unchanged on Monday as concerns about the rising bond yields and US government shutdown continued. The pair was trading at 0.6441, a few points above last week’s low of 0.6390.
Rising bond yields
The AUD/USD reacted quite mildly to the latest interest rate decision by the Federal Reserve. In a statement, the Fed decided to leave rates unchanged between 5.25% and 5.50%.
The Fed’s dot plot pointed to another 0.25% rate hike later this year, which will push them to the highest point in decades. This view was supported by statements by Mary Daly and Michele Bowman on Friday.
In statements, the two Fed officials warned that inflation remained significantly higher than the bank’s target of 2.0%. As a result, they warned that the bank will likely need to continue hiking them for a while.
Therefore, the US dollar has held quite well as investors prepare for the new normal of high interest rates. For one, the most recent inflation numbers showed that the headline consumer price index jumped to 3.7% in August.
The price of crude oil has continued rising and analysts believe that it could hit $100 soon. Other important items like olive oil, cocoa, and live cattle have surged to the highest point in years.
There will be no economic data from Australia this week. Therefore, all attention will be in the US, where the risk of a government shutdown is rising by the day. This shutdown, coupled with the auto workers strike and the traffic jam at the Panama Canal means that the economy will slow.
The key economic data from the US this week will be the upcoming consumer confidence data, durable goods orders, and the final reading of US GDP data.
AUD/USD technical analysis
The AUD/USD pair has been in a tight range in the past few weeks. It has remained between the support and resistance levels at 0.6354 and 0.6517. The pair has remained at the 26-period and 50-period moving averages and slightly below the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement level.
The Stochastic Oscillator has moved to the neutral point of 50. Therefore, the pair will likely remain in this range on Monday. The key support and resistance points will be at 0.6400 and 0.6517.
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