Since the 11th of August, the NZD/USD has essentially traded between the 0.59000 to 0.60000 price range with occasional small outliers. The NZD/USD is mirroring the results of many other major currency pairs teamed against the USD regarding its rather nervous-looking results technically. Behavioral sentiment continues to be fragile and the depths of the NZD/USD remain near values last seen in the second week of November 2022.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand went on the record earlier today and said it is monitoring the value of the NZD/USD, essentially admitting that they are not pleased with the lower price values. Tomorrow, the Jackson Hole Symposium conducted by the U.S. Federal Reserve gets underway. The gathering of important central banking leaders will get news coverage, but it is unlikely to spur Forex in any particular way violently. The conference will certainly speak about inflation, growth, and credit challenges.
Short-Term Range Likely to Remain Tight for the NZD/USD
It certainly appears Forex is waiting for more impetus to move the needle in currency pairs like the NZD/USD, but the rather tight range may represent what financial institutions see as fair market value. However, the behavioral sentiment being rather nervous leaves the NZD/USD open to the potential of sudden volatility. The current price of the NZD/USD is near the 0.59475 mark and support near the 0.59375 appears rather durable.
Traders who want to participate in the NZD/USD need to understand that global market conditions are nervous regarding U.S bond yields which are spurring on a rather durable amount of USD strength. However, speculators may continue to feel the NZD/USD has been oversold, and they might look to what they view as viable support levels as ignition spots to buy the NZD/USD for quick-hitting results.
New Zealand Economic Data Remains Troublesome
- Retail Sales data from New Zealand came in lower than expected this morning.
- Weaker consumer spending in New Zealand will continue to keep the Reserve Bank of New Zealand rather dovish. Meaning the NZD/USD will react to U.S-centric economic data and sentiment generated by global markets.
- The U.S. will release Manufacturing PMI data today, if the number is weaker than expected, this could spur on some buying of the NZD/USD.
Because nervous sentiment remains high, traders should monitor ‘news flow’ even if they are technically oriented regarding their trading positions. The NZD/USD must be treated carefully regarding support and resistance perceptions. Not until the NZD/USD breaks above the 0.60000 level in a sustained manner will bullish speculators start to really feel more comfortable.
NZD/USD Short Term Outlook:
Current Resistance: 0.59575
Current Support: 0.59405
High Target: 0.59740
Low Target: 0.59210
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