Bullish view
- Buy the GBP/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.2800.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.2650.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bearish view
- Set a sell-stop at 1.2670 and a take-profit at 1.2600.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.2750.
The US dollar index (DXY) sell-off continued, pushing the GBP/USD pair to the highest level since August 23rd. It was trading at 1.2715 on Thursday morning, higher than this month’s low of 1.2548.
US slowdown and the Federal Reserve
The GBP/USD exchange rate bounced back after a series of weak economic data from the United States. On Tuesday, a report by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) published relatively weaker US job vacancies data. The numbers showed that the number of vacancies dropped to 2021 lows in July.
Another report by the Conference Board showed that the country’s consumer confidence dropped to 106 in August. It was the first monthly decline in three months, signaling that consumers are getting worried about the economy.
On Wednesday, data published by ADP revealed that the American private sector created just 177k jobs in August after adding 324k in the previous month. The economy also expanded by 2.1% in Q2, lower than the initial estimate of 2.4%.
Therefore, there is a likelihood that the Federal Reserve will reconsider hiking interest rates in September. Most analysts expect that the bank will decide to leave them unchanged as it assesses the strength of the economy.
The next important economic data to watch will be the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge. Economists polled by Reuters expect the data to show that the headline PCE increased from 3.0% in June to 3.3% in July. Core PCE is expected to have risen from 4.1% to 4.2%.
These inflation numbers will come a few days after Jerome Powell talked at the Jackson Hole Symposium. In his speech, the Fed Chair reiterated that the bank will continue hiking interest rates to fight inflation.
The other crucial data will be the US non-farm payrolls (NFP) data scheduled for Friday. These numbers are expected to reveal that the country’s labor market continued weakening in August.
GBP/USD technical analysis
The GBP/USD exchange rate made a bullish breakout after a series of weak economic numbers from the United States. As it rose, the pair moved above the key resistance point at 1.2621, the lowest points on August 3rd and August 14th. The pair also jumped above the 25-period and 50-period moving averages while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) moved above 50.
Therefore, the pair will likely continue rising as buyers target the key resistance point at 1.2800. The stop-loss will be at 1.2640.
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