Bullish view
- Set a buy-limit order at 26,858 and set a take-profit at 28,175.
- Add a stop-loss at 25,000.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bearish view
- Set a sell-stop at 26,800 and a take-profit at 25,000.
- Add a stop-loss at 27,500.
The BTC/USD pair lost momentum in the overnight session as the enthusiasm of the Grayscale court victory faded. Bitcoin retreated to a low of $27,000, lower than this week’s high of $28,158. The price is still higher than August’s low of $25,256.
Grayscale momentum fades
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency prices rose sharply on Tuesday and then lost momentum. This price action is similar to what happened after the verdict of the SEC vs Ripple case.
Bitcoin initially jumped to a two-week high of $28,175 after a court in the US ruled in favor of Grayscale. The company, which is owned by Digital Currency Group, runs the biggest Bitcoin fund in the world with over $18 billion in assets.
The fund’s main challenge is that it has always traded at a steep discount to the net asset value (NAV). Therefore, the creators decided to change it from a trust to a spot ETF, an application in which the SEC rejected.
Therefore, the lawsuit means that the company will have a chance to move forward with the conversion. At the same time, it will allow the SEC to reconsider other ETF applications by companies like Invesco and Blackrock.
The SEC has until Friday to either deny, approve, or delay some of the ETF applications. A denial will likely lead to another lawsuit against the SEC. Therefore, there is a likelihood that the SEC will decide to delay the decision.
The BTC/USD pair will next react to the latest personal consumer expenditure (PCE) and non-farm payrolls (NFP) data. Economists expect the data to reveal that the PCE, Fed’s favorite inflation gauge, rose to 3.3% in July. They also expect the data to show that the country’s NFP declined once again in July.
BTC/USD technical analysis
The BTC/USD pair retreated after soaring to high of 28,175 on Tuesday. It was trading at 27,235 on Thursday morning as the bullish trend lost momentum. Despite the retreat, the pair remains above the 25-period and 50-period moving averages. It is also slightly above the important support level at 26,588, the highest point on August 23rd.
Therefore, the pair will likely bounce back after doing a break and retest pattern. This is where it will retest the support at 26,858 and then resume the bullish trend. If this happens, the pair will retest this week’s high of 28,158.
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