Bearish view
- Sell the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 25,000.
- Add a stop-loss at 27,500.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bullish view
- Set a buy-stop at 26,700 and a take-profit at 27,500.
- Add a stop-loss at 25,000.
The BTC/USD pair joined US equities and bonds in a strong rebound on Wednesday as investors embraced a risk-on sentiment. Bitcoin rose to a high of $26,580, the highest level since August 17th. It has jumped by almost 5% from the lowest level last week.
BTC, stocks, and bonds rise
Most financial assets bounced back on Wednesday, signaling that investors have embraced a risk-on sentiment. American equities rose, with the Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100, and S&P 500 indices soared by more than 0.50%.
In the same period, the US dollar index (DXY) dropped by 0.15% to $103.33 on Wednesday. In most periods, investors tend to dump the greenback in a risk-on environment.
Most importantly, American bond yields retreated in the overnight session. The ten-year yield dropped by 2.96% to 4.20% while the 30-year fell by 3.10% to 4.29%. These yields recently jumped to the highest level in more than a decade.
This performance happened after another set of weak economic numbers from the US. The data revealed that the manufacturing and services dropped to 47 and 51 in August, signaling that the economy is slowing. The composite PMI fell to 50.4.
Therefore, there is a likelihood that the Federal Reserve will consider pausing hiking interest rates in the coming meetings. The Fed has been hiking interest rates in the past few months, pushing them to the highest level in over two decades.
Jerome Powell, the head of the Fed, will likely provide more hints about this in the coming meeting at Jackson Hole. Analysts expect him to maintain a neutral tone by committting to continue fighting inflation.
BTC/USD technical analysis
The BTC/USD pair has been in a tight range in the past few days. In this period, it has remained at the psychologically important support at 26,000. On the 4H chart, the pair remains below the 50-period moving average.
At the same time, the pair has formed a bearish flag pattern, which is usually a warning of more downside. The Average True Range (ATR) indicator has drifted downwards in a sign of low volatility.
Therefore, despite the breakout, there is a likelihood that the pair will resume the bearish trend and retest the support at 25,000.
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