Bearish view
- Sell the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 28,825.
- Add a stop-loss at 30,000.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bullish view
- Set a buy-stop at 29,400 and a take-profit at 30,500.
- Add a stop-loss at 28,900.
Bitcoin’s deep slumber continued this week as the coin ignored important macro data from the US, UK, and China. The BTC/USD pair remained stuck above the support level at 29,000. It has been in this range since the first week of July.
FOMC minutes ahead
Bitcoin price ignored important economic numbers on Tuesday. In the morning session, data revealed that the Chinese economic growth continued faltering in July. Retail sales rose by 2.5% in July, down from the previous month’s 3.1%. Industrial production and fixed asset investments rose at a slower pace than expected.
Another set of data revealed that Japan’s economy was thriving in Q2 as it expanded by 6% on a YoY basis. It grew by 1.5% from the previous quarter. These numbers mean that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) could continue tightening in the coming months.
The other important economic data came from the UK, where wage growth accelerated in June. Average earnings rose by 8.2% in June, higher than the median estimate of 7.3%. Therefore, if inflation remains sticky, the Bank of England (BoE) will likely continue hiking rates in September.
Meanwhile, the US consumer is doing great as evidenced by the strong retail sales numbers. Sales jumped by 0.7% in July while core sales rose by 1.0% as inflation retreated. As a result, analysts are pricing in another 0.25% rate increase in September. Bitcoin tends to underperform in a period of high rates.
Looking ahead, the key catalyst for Bitcoin and the US dollar will be the upcoming FOMC minutes. These minutes will provide more details on the deliberations by Fed officials in the last meeting.
BTC/USD technical analysis
The BTC/USD pair remained in a consolidation phase this week as the crypto winter continued. It was trading at 29,282 on Wednesday, where it has been for a while. This price is a bit higher than the important support level at 29,000.
The pair is oscillating at the 25-period and 50-period moving averages while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) dropped below the neutral point at 50. Therefore, the pair will likely remain in this range as traders wait for the next catalyst.
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