Bearish view
- Sell the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 28,520.
- Add a stop-loss at 30,000.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bullish view
- Buy the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 30,500.
- Add a stop-loss of 28,520.
Bitcoin price has gone nowhere this summer in a period marked by low volatility and volume. The BTC/USD pair has constantly remained below the resistance level at 30,000 as the US dollar index (DXY) rose.
Bitcoin’s price action has happened in a period of low volatility. Data shows that Bitcoin’s short and long liquidations have moved sideways after rising sharply in June. Similarly, Bitcoin’s open interest in the futures market has been a bit stable.
The daily volume of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies traded in centralized and decentralized exchanges has been in a downward trend. Indeed, July was one of the worst months for exchanges.
Bitcoin has also ignored important events in the crypto and economic industries. For example, it ignored the Ripple vs SEC ruling important macro numbers. Data published earlier this month showed that the economy’s labor market was softening.
Another report showed that the US consumer price index (CPI) dropped on a MoM basis in July. Therefore, there is a likelihood that the Federal Reserve will pause its interest rate hikes in September.
The next important mover for the BTC/USD pair will be the latest US retail sales numbers on Tuesday. Economists expect the data to show that core retail sales dropped by 0.3% in July while the headline sales rose by 0.4%. The US will also release the latest export and import price index.
The Federal Reserve will publish its minutes on Wednesday. These minutes will provide more information about what to expect in the coming meeting in September.
BTC/USD technical analysis
The BTC/USD pair has been in a tight range in the past few weeks. As a result, the Average True Range (ATR) has crashed to the lowest level in months, signaling that volatility has dried up. The Bollinger Bands have also narrowed while the price is along the 25-period moving average.
Therefore, the pair will likely remain in this range on Tuesday. On the upper hand, the next level to watch will be the psychological point at 30,000. A break above that level will bring the year-to-date high of 31,880. On the lower side, the next support to focus on will be last month’s low of 28,518.
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