My previous BTC/USD signal on 2nd August was not triggered as there was insufficiently bullish price action when the key support levels were first reached that day.
Today’s BTC/USD Signals
Risk 0.75% per trade.
Trades must be taken prior to 5 pm Tokyo time Friday.
Long Trade Ideas
- Long entry after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $29,349, $29,270, $28,810, or $28,626.
- Place the stop loss $100 below the local swing low.
- Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to run.
Short Trade Ideas
- Short entry after a bearish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $29,681, $29,867, or $30,092.
- Place the stop loss $100 above the local swing high.
- Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to run.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
BTC/USD Analysis
I wrote in my previous BTC/USD analysis on Wednesday last week that despite the bullish breakout from a descending price channel, a new descending price channel had been formed which was holding the price. A little more than one week later and the same thing has happened again, this time with an even weaker descending price channel.
It is very difficult to see Bitcoin getting much higher for two reasons:
- The strong resistance at $31k has again held firm, and the price fails again and again whenever it gets close to that area.
- Markets are seeing a selloff over recent days in risky assets such as stocks and Bitcoin.
Despite the seeming inability to rise, there is buying at lower support levels, and the valid descending price channel now has a very gentle slope.
Still, it makes sense technically and sentimentally to take a bearish bias here.
I will be happy to enter a new short trade after either:
- A bearish reversal at $29,681 or either of the higher resistance levels above that, or
- Two consecutive lower hourly closes below $29,200.
Solid bounces at $28,810 or the support level below that could also be interesting short to medium-term buys.
Concerning the US Dollar, there will be a release of CPI (inflation) and unemployment claims data at 1:30pm London time.
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