The GBP/USD broke through the 1.31000 level last Thursday and going into the weekend the currency pair has provided sustained value within upper realms. When trading begins tomorrow the GBP/USD will be near the 1.30920 ratio and forex traders should pay attention. The U.K government didn’t suddenly announce that the British economy is doing well, nor is it expected to generate growth in the mid-term. No, the U.K economy remains under challenging circumstances of high inflation and recessionary pressures.
However the GBP/USD is now trading within a vicinity in which experienced traders can look at the currency pair’s value and say, ‘the GBP/USD has historically traded at these higher values and beyond’. Financial institutions which have likely been betting on the recovery of the higher GBP/USD value range are likely not surprised either, they have been playing a long-term game. Day traders who have been fortunate enough to believe the GBP/USD would continue to increase in value have likely been rewarded too.
The Bank of England Remains Hawkish while U.S Inflation was Weaker than Expected
Weaker than expected U.S inflation data last week, perhaps made traders believe the U.S Federal Reserve will have to begin curbing their hawkish rhetoric. The Fed is still expected to raise interest rates on the 26th of July, but if U.S inflation continues to decline the U.S central bank would have to become more dovish. The GBP/USD climbed above 1.29000 on Tuesday of last week and came within sight of 1.29700, before stumbling back to 1.29000. However on Wednesday the GBP/USD bounced upwards again and this time sustained price velocity.
The notion the Bank of England will have to remain aggressive longer than the U.S Fed may be fueling behavioral sentiment in the GBP/USD. U.K inflation remains problematic. The ability of the GBP/USD to break above the 1.30000 on Thursday and produce stronger buying shows a shift of sentiment has likely taken place. Traders should expect reversals lower still, but where support proves durable will be a significant point of interest and serious question.
U.K Inflation Data Comes on Wednesday and Retail Sales on Friday
- Inflation statistics will come from the U.K on Wednesday via the CPI reports, and on Friday Retail Sales figures will be published.
- While U.K economic figures are crucial for the GBP/USD regarding Bank of England rhetoric, U.S data is important too and manufacturing reports will come via the Empire State Manufacturing Index numbers on Monday and the Philly Fed reading on Thursday.
GBP/USD Weekly Outlook:
Speculative price range for GBP/USD is 1.29530 to 1.31940
There is no arguing the trend of the GBP/USD at this point, but day traders should remain realistic regarding price targets. At some point the GBP/USD is likely to start being viewed as overbought, but the currency pair is still below higher values produced historically. Again day traders should look for quick hitting results and be aware reversals lower can and do happen. The 1.30000 mark should be watched early this week to see if prices are sustained above. The 1.30600 to 1.30500 range below could prove intriguing as a test of lower values and sentiment. If this value realm remains strong, some traders may think the GBP/USD can venture higher.
Short-term volatility will prove intriguing because of the U.S manufacturing data combined with U.K inflation reports by mid-week. Having broken above the 1.31000 level on Thursday and Friday of last week may be an indication financial institutions are going to stay bullish regarding the GBP/USD.
Stop-loss, take profit and even entry price orders should be used by speculators to guard against fast moves. If the GBP/USD begins to trade above the 1.31000 level again and sustain value, some traders may believe the 1.31500 to 1.31800 ratios are a possibility. Cashing out winning trades before they vanish into thin air is important for day traders who want to make sure profits are taken off the table. The price velocity seen last week is unlikely to continue throughout this coming week, but stranger things have happened in Forex, including violent reversals which can wipe out day traders.
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