Bearish view
- Sell the EUR/USD pair and a take-profit at 1.0800.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.0910.
- Timeline: 1 day.
Bullish view
- Buy the EUR/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.0925.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.0800.
The EUR/USD price retreated to the lowest level since Friday as the Fed minutes pointed to more rate hikes. It also dropped after the weaker-than-expected services PMI numbers from Europe and China.
Slowing economic growth
The EUR/USD pair dropped as concerns of the global economy continued. On Wednesday, data showed that the Chinese services PMI dropped to 53.9 in June, the lowest level in six months. Earlier this week, data revealed that the manufacturing PMI also dropped during the month.
The same trend happened in Europe. According to S&P Global, the composite PMI in Europe dropped to the contraction zone of 49.9. A PMI figure below 50 is a sign of contraction. In Germany and Italian composite PMIs dropped to 50.6 and 49.7, respectively.
Further, the Fed also warned that the American economy has started slowing down because of elevated inflation, high-interest rates, and tighter monetary conditions. And in a statement, Knight-Swift warned about the state of its business. This is notable since the company is one of the biggest freight transporters in the US.
The minutes also showed that the bank will continue hiking interest rates later this year since inflation remains stubbornly high. Unlike in the past, future rate hikes will be gradual.
The next important EUR/USD news will be the latest European retail sales numbers. At the same time, the US will publish the latest trade and mortgage numbers. ADP and the Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish key job numbers.
These data will be followed by the latest non-farm payrolls (NFP) data, which will come on Friday. Economists expect the data to show that the economy added over 200k jobs in June while the unemployment rate remained at 3.7%.
EUR/USD technical analysis
The EUR/USD price continued falling ahead of the upcoming US jobs numbers. It moved below the Ichimoku cloud and the 50% Fibonacci Retracement level. The pair also dropped below the lower side of the Schiff pitchfork tool.
The pair has moved below the 50-period exponential moving average (EMA). At the same time, the MACD has moved below the neutral point while the Stochastic Oscillator has dropped below the oversold level.
Therefore, the pair will likely continue falling as sellers target the next psychological level at 1.0800. This view will be confirmed if it drops below the key support at 1.0836, the lowest point on Friday.
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