Bearish view
- Sell the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 29,000.
- Add a stop-loss at 31,000.
- Timeline: 1 day.
Bullish view
- Set a buy-stop at 30,300 and a take-profit at 31,000.
- Add a stop-loss at 29,000.
The BTC/USD price continued consolidating around the 30,000 support level as demand for Bitcoin retreated. Bitcoin was trading at $30,000 on Thursday morning, a few points below last week’s high of 31,842.
Waiting for the next catalyst
Bitcoin has been in an extremely tight range since June. In this period, the coin has failed to meaningfully react to the recent strong news. For example, it initially jumped to a high of $31,842 after the conclusion of the Ripple vs SEC case in the US.
The SEC had alleged that Ripple Labs had violated American laws when it raised funds in 2013. While the judge ruled that Ripple violated laws, she found that XRP was not a financial security. This was seen as a positive thing for most cryptocurrencies.
Bitcoin has also reacted mildly to the recent weak economic numbers. Data published earlier this month showed that the American economy created just 209k jobs in June, lower than the expected 230k.
Additional data revealed that the headline and core inflation dropped to 3.0% and 4.8%, respectively. On Tuesday, data published on Tuesday showed that the country’s retail sales dropped in June.
Manufacturing and industrial production also fell. Further, data showed that the housing sector started cooling in June. Housing starts and building permits also dropped after rising in the previous month.
These weak economic numbers mean that the Federal Reserve has a small room to hike interest rates. Analysts believe that the Federal Reserve will hike rates by 0.25% next week and then pause.
BTC/USD technical analysis
The BTC/USD pair continued consolidating this week. This performance has pushed the Average True Range (ATR) has drifted downwards, signaling that inflation has continued falling. The pair has moved slightly below the 50-period moving average, meaning that bears are gaining some control.
The Negative Volume Index (NVI) has remained above the exponential moving average. Therefore, Bitcoin price will likely remain in this consolidation phase for a while. A move below the support at 29,544 in a high-volume environment will signal that the bears have prevailed. That could push it below 29,000.
On the other hand, a move above the 50-period MA at 30,300 will lead to more gains as buyers target the upper side of the range at 31,350.
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