Bullish view
- Buy the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 31,500.
- Add a stop-loss at 29,000.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bearish view
- Sell the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 29,000.
- Add a stop-loss at 31,500.
Bitcoin has remained in a tight range in the past few days as investors wait for the next catalyst and as the US dollar index retreated. The BTC/USD pair is still hovering slightly above the 30,000 level where it has been in the past two weeks.
Bitcoin’s next catalyst
Bitcoin has remained in a tight range in the past two weeks as investors wait for the next catalyst in the industry. There have been no major news since some of the biggest companies in the financial industry like Invesco and Blackrock applied for their spot ETF.
A spot ETF is a financial asset that tracks the price of an asset at the current level. It differs from the ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITO), which tracks CME Bitcoin futures. Therefore, the view is that the ETF will lead to more inflows in the crypto industry.
It is not clear whether the SEC will accept these ETFs since the agency has denied them in the past. While the SEC’s decision is important, traders are also looking for a court case by Grayscale, which launched the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust.
The company has sued the SEC for denying it the license to convert GBTC into an ETF. A favourable outcome will likely lead to more BTC ETFs. Therefore, traders will be looking for other developments in the crypto industry.
Looking ahead, the next important thing that could move the BTC/USD pair will be the upcoming US inflation data scheduled for Wednesday. Economists expect the data to show that the headline CPI dropped to 3.1% in June while the core CPI fell slightly. These numbers are important because they will impact the next action by the Fed.
BTC/USD technical analysis
The BTC/USD pair has moved sideways in the past few weeks. It was trading at 30,375 on Tuesday morning, higher than the June 30th low of 29,530. As a result, the coin is consolidating at the 25-day and 50-day exponential moving averages (EMA). It is also slightly above the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement level.
The Average True Range (ATR), a good measure of volatility, has dropped to the lowest point since June 5th. Therefore, the pair will likely remain in this range on Tuesday as investors wait for the next catalyst. The key support and resistance levels to watch will be at 29,700 and 31,000.
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