Bearish view
- Sell the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 29,500.
- Add a stop-loss at 30,500.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bullish view
- Set a buy-stop at 30,200 and a take-profit at 31,000.
- Add a stop-loss at 29,500.
The BTC/USD has gone nowhere in the past few weeks as the focus now shifts to the upcoming Fed decision and options expiry. Bitcoin was trading at $29,950, where it has been for the most part of the month.
Fed decision and options expiry
Bitcoin has been in a consolidation phase in the past few weeks as investors wait for the next catalyst. The coin has struggled to move to the important resistance level at $31,882, where it got to on July 13th.
The industry has not had important news recently. Earlier this month, the focus among investors was on TradFi as companies like Blackrock and Invesco filed their Bitcoin ETFs. The other crucial crypto news was the Ripple vs SEC lawsuit.
The key economic event to watch will be the upcoming Fed interest rate decision. Economists expect that the Fed will deliver another 0.25% interest rate hike. If this happens, the Fed will push rates to the highest point in more than 20 years.
The bank will likely point to no further rate hike this year since inflation has slipped to 3.0% from the pandemic high of 9.1%. With China staring at deflation, some analysts believe that inflation will move below the Fed’s target of 2.0%.
The actions of the Federal Reserve have an impact on the prices of Bitcoin and other risky assets. In most cases, Bitcoin tends to do well when the Fed is in a dovish tone.
The other important catalyst will be the upcoming Bitcoin options expiry scheduled for Friday. Public data shows that there is high open interest in the $31k and $32k range, pointing to strong resistance. Bitcoin tends to show some resistance ahead of options expiry.
BTC/USD technical analysis
The BTC/USD pair remained in a tight range ahead of the upcoming Fed decision. It is oscillating at the important level of 30,000, where it has been ranging at for a while. The pair is hovering at the 50-period and 25-period moving averages. At the same time, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved to the neutral point of 50 while the Average True Range (ATR) has drifted downwards.
Therefore, the pair will likely continue remaining in this range for a while. A volume-supported break below the support at 29,500 will signal more declines.
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