Bearish view
- Sell the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 29,000.
- Add a stop-loss at 31,000.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bullish view
- Set a buy-stop at 30,100 and a take-profit at 31,000.
- Add a stop-loss at 29,000.
The BTC/USD pair retreated below the important support of 30,000 as investors reflected on the recent developments in the industry. The pair dropped to a low of 29,663, the lowest level since June 30th. It has dropped by more than 7% from the highest point this year.
Waiting for the Next Catalyst
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies retreated from last week’s high of $31,856 to below $30,000. This decline happened as BTC struggled to move above the year-to-date high of $31,856. It failed to cross this resistance level in one of the most consequential weeks in the crypto market.
First, the SEC suffered a major blow in a New York court. A US judge ruled that XRP was not a financial security. That was an important ruling because it came at a time when the SEC has embraced a more combative role in the crypto industry.
Some of its recent actions were the lawsuits against companies like Coinbase and Binance. The two are the biggest companies in the crypto industry.
Second, the US published encouraging consumer and producer inflation data. The headline consumer inflation dropped from 4.1% in May to 3.0% in June. Core inflation dropped to 4.8%. Therefore, expectations for interest rate hikes have dropped in the past few days.
As a result, American stocks have jumped while the dollar has dropped to the lowest level since last year. Therefore, the fact that the BTC/USD pair failed to move above the year-to-date high is a sign that there are not enough buyers in the market.
BTC/USD Technical Analysis
The BTC/USD pair has come under intense selling pressure after peaking at 31,856 last week. As it dropped, the pair moved below the support at 31,397, the highest point in June. It also slipped below the support at 31,000. The pair has dropped below the 25-period and 50-period moving averages. It has also formed a bearish flag pattern.
Therefore, by failing to move below the upper side of the rectangle channel last week, it sends a signal that there are no enough buyers in the market. As such, there is a possibility that the pair will continue falling as sellers target the next support level at 29,000.
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