Bearish View
- Sell the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 29,000.
- Add a stop-loss at 31,000.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bullish View
- Set a buy-stop at 30,800 and a take-profit at 31,800.
- Add a stop-loss at 29,000.
Bitcoin remained above the support level of $30,000 even after several important events that happened last week. The BTC/USD price jumped to 31,856, the highest level since 2022. It then retreated sharply to about 30,200.
Fed and SEC Defeat
Two important things happened in the financial market last week. First, the US published encouraging consumer price index data. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the headline inflation dropped to 3.0% in June while core inflation dropped to 4.8% during the month.
These numbers came a few days after the US published soft jobs numbers. Therefore, risky assets like stocks rose as investors assessed the potential actions of the Federal Reserve. Before these numbers, most analysts were expecting the Fed to hike rates two more times this year. Now, I believe that the bank will deliver one more hike and then take a strategic pause.
The other important event was the decision by a US judge to offer a partial victory to Ripple Labs. In her ruling, the judge said that the company and its executives violated American laws when they raised money in 2013. That ruling will attract a huge fee to the parties.
On the other hand, she ruled that XRP was not a security. This was the first time that the SEC suffered a major defeat in the crypto industry.
Bitcoin was not a party in this litigation since all regulators believe that the coin is not a security. Instead, the CFTC and the SEC believes that it is a digital commodity. However, the ruling provided some relief to traders, which pushed the fear and greed index to the highest level in months.
BTC/USD Technical Analysis
The BTC/USD pair has been in a tight range in the past few days. It initially jumped to 31,856 last week after the US inflation data and the Ripple Labs ruling. The pair then retreated to above 30,000 as the bullish momentum faded.
Bitcoin has retreated below the 25-period and 50-period moving averages. It remains slightly above the important support level at 30,000 and this month’s low of 29,767. The Average True Range (ATR) has moved to the lowest level since last week.
Therefore, the outlook of the pair is neutral with a bearish bias since it has formed a flag pattern. A bearish breakout will be confirmed if it moves below 29,767.
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