The NASDAQ 100 has been very noisy during the trading session on Thursday, as we have seen the Federal Reserve shock the markets during the previous session, only to see “zero day to expiration options” come into the picture and cause chaos at the end of the day on Wednesday. It now looks as if the European Central Bank press conference has turned the market back around yet again, and the bullish trend has continued at the US dollar is taking a bit of a beating during the day.
Looking at the chart, the 15,250 level above is a previous high, and I do think that is the target before it is all said and done. This is especially true considering how quickly we turn things around during trading on Thursday. However, there is something that you need to pay close attention to on Friday, which of course is the “quad witching” that is about to happen. This is one for separate classes of options expire at the same day, and it will almost certainly cause a lot of volatility in the stock markets on the whole. Because of this, I would not be jumping into the market at this point, or if I were to already be in the market, I might consider taking a profit just a little bit shy of that high.
We Are in a Massive “Melt Up”
- This is not to say that the market cannot go higher, it’s just that the volatility will be so much that you are probably better off just waiting for a pullback in order to get long. On a pullback, I anticipate that the 14,700 level should be a nice buying opportunity, just as a daily close above 15,250 means that we are going even higher.
- However, the market has melted up so quickly that it’s difficult to get overly excited at this point, so at this point it’s all about trying to find value, which is basically how you should be trading anyway.
- Chasing the trade is a great way to lose money, and therefore you should not be doing it.
Underneath, we have the 14,000 level that will offer a little bit of psychological support, as well as the 50-Day EMA near the 13,750 level. Needless to say, if we get all the way down there, it could be either a lot of value, or it could be a sign that things are changing.
Potential Signal: The NASDAQ 100 continues to find buyers on dips, and even though Friday is a “quad witching Friday”, the reality is that the market remains very bullish. I would be willing to dip my toe in the water somewhere near 14,800 with a stop loss at 14,500, with the expectation that we will eventually break out to the upside. It is obvious that we are in a massive “melt up”, despite the fact that the economic reality argues differently. Until then, this is a one-way trade.
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