Bullish view
- Buy the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 27,478.
- Add a stop-loss at 25,831.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bearish view
- Set a sell-stop at 26,100 and a take-profit at 25,000.
- Add a stop-loss at 27,500.
The BTC/USD pair staged a strong recovery during the weekend. Bitcoin jumped to a high of $26,746, the highest level since Wednesday last week. It has jumped by over 6% from the lowest level last week. Still, despite these gains, Bitcoin remains about $6,000 below the highest level this year.
Blackrock optimism
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have had a difficult period in the past few weeks as concerns about regulations continued. Earlier this month, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) sued Binance and Coinbase, the two biggest players in the industry. As a result, Bitcoin and most cryptocurrencies lost over $300 billion in total market cap.
The recent catalyst for the BTC/USD pair was the decision by Blackrock to file paperwork for a spot Bitcoin Exchange Traded Fund (ETF). This is a notable thing for two main reasons. First, Blackrock is the biggest fund manager in the world with almost $10 trillion in assets.
Second, if it is accepted, the fund will be the first Bitcoin ETF in the United States. Previously, the SEC accepted BITO, an ETF that tracks Bitcoin futures. Therefore, with investors having concerns about exchanges like Coinbase and Binance, there is a likelihood that many of them will move to the new Bitcoin ETF by Blackrock.
In its filing, Blackrock said that the iShares Bitcoin Trust will use Coinbase as a custodian. In a note, an analyst told Coindesk that:
“A definite plus for Coinbase and the industry as this filing lays out clear processes for custody, liquidity, and price monitoring, positively impacting Coinbase’s business prospects and industry adoption.”
The BTC/USD pair could see more gains in the coming weeks as investors wait for more clarity about this. It will also rise as investors buy the dip and as they assess the impact of the latest interest rate decision.
BTC/USD technical analysis
The BTC/USD pair rebounded during the weekend. As it rose, the pair managed to flip the important resistance at 25,831 into support. On the 4H chart, the 25-period and 50-period moving averages made a bullish crossover. At the same time, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approaching the overbought level at 70.
The pair will likely continue rising as buyers target the next key resistance point at 27,478, the highest point on May 15, 18, and 23rd. The support for this view is at 25,831.
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