Bullish view
- Buy the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 32,000.
- Add a stop-loss at 29,000.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bearish view
- Set a sell-stop at 30,334 and a take-profit at 28,000.
- Add a stop-loss at 32,000.
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies remained in a tight range ahead of the coming options expiry. The BTC/USD pair was flat near 31,000 even as American stocks roared back, with the Dow Jones rising by over 200 points. Bitcoin has more than doubled this year, outperforming key assets like stocks and commodities.
Institutional adoption and options expiry
Bitcoin has done well in the past few weeks, helped by the potential for institutional adoption. The potential for this adoption happened after several companies, including the biggest asset manager in the world, applied for a spot Bitcoin ETF.
While the SEC has rejected these applications in the past, analysts believe that the regulator will accept it this time. If this happens, institutional investors will have a better way of investing in Bitcoin without using exchanges directly.
The BTC/USD pair also rose after the Federal Reserve decided to leave interest rates unchanged in its meeting this month. It was the first time that the bank rates are unchanged in eleven meetings. Still, the recent streak of upbeat US data shows that the bank will resume hiking rates in the coming meetings.
Bitcoin also drifted upwards as American stocks rebounded on Tuesday. The Dow Jones index jumped by more than 200 points while the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 rose by over 220 points. Most large and small-cap stocks were in the green. At the same time, the dollar index and the VIX index dropped by 25 and 344 basis points, respectively. Bitcoin’s fear and greed index stands at the greed area of 58.
The other major catalyst for the BTC/USD pair will be the upcoming Bitcoin options expiry scheduled for Friday. In most periods, Bitcoin tends to have significant volatility ahead of this expiry.
BTC/USD technical analysis
The BTC/USD pair has been in a strong bullish trend in the past few weeks. This week, however, the pair has remained in a tight range close to the highest point in over 12 months. Bitcoin is above the 50-period moving average and the Ichimoku cloud indicator. The Relative Strength Index, the most popular oscillator, has held above 50.
Bitcoin has formed a bullish pennant pattern. Therefore, the outlook for the coin is bullish, with the next level to watch being at 32,000. This view will be confirmed if it moves above the weekend high of 31,462.
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