The USD/TRY is trading at all-time record levels as of this morning, this as the currency pair continues to traverse upwards steadily. The runoff vote for Turkish leadership will take place on the 28th of May, only in a few days. While many seemingly want to pretend that the leadership vote in Turkey this coming Sunday is without concerns in what is one of the world’s most important geopolitical nations, it is not.
Financial Institutions do not Look Favorably on Current Economic Conditions in Turkey
The USD/TRY has been traversing higher for a number of years. Speculators who can get their hands on the currency pair within their trading platforms do not have much of a choice regarding the direction they want to speculate on regarding the USD/TRY. Speculators face much tougher questions about accurate price fills and transaction costs while trying to wager on the USD/TRY.
Brokers know the direction of the USD/TRY better than most, and many make trading the currency pair difficult with higher costs, including wide spreads and overnight carrying charges that are outrageous. If a speculator has a trusted broker that allows them to trade the USD/TRY in an effective manner, congratulations and please feel free to trade in a conservative manner.
The outcome of the vote on Sunday which is ‘suggested’ by financial institutions is that the current leadership will win the vote. The upwards momentum of the USD/TRY shows traders are still punishing the Turkish Lira and do not trust the future economic policies of Turkey. While some may suggest the climb higher is because the USD has been so strong in the broad Forex market the past two weeks, this notion should be disregarded. The USD/TRY is now traversing near the 19.91500 mark as of this writing.
The 20.00000 Level for the USD/TRY is clearly in Sight and an Eventual Target
Certainly, there could be a surprise outcome in the Turkish election and the opposition could win the vote this Sunday. If that were to occur, the USD/TRY could begin to see a trend downwards potentially emerge early next week on optimism that economic management will change. However, the direction of the USD/TRY is not positive regarding reality and tells traders and the citizens of Turkey, that the current leadership is likely to remain in power. Meaning the USD/TRY could soon approach 20.00000.
- Trading the USD/TRY is dangerous and can be expensive because of transaction costs which could be hidden.
- Before trading the USD/TRY and pursuing a speculative position, traders should ask their broker about all costs involved, including the cost for carrying the trade overnight.
- Volatility downwards does occur, so traders should not speculate blindly and use stop loss orders, besides entry price and take profit orders.
- Traders should not get overly ambitious in the USD/TRY.
Turkish Lira Short-Term Outlook:
Current Resistance: 19.91600
Current Support: 19.89150
High Target: 19.95100
Low Target: 19.84400
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