TRY/USD Forecast: Stability Ahead of the Interest Rate Decision

On the technical front, the dollar pair against the Turkish lira maintained its gains, as the pair settled near its new all-time high, after the pair touched the correct number at 20 lira. 

Today's recommendation on the TRY/USD

The risk is 0.50%.

Best buying entry points

  • Entering a buy order pending order from the 19.80 level.
  • Place a stop loss point to close below the 19.39 level.
  • Move the stop loss to the entry area and follow the profit when the price moves by 50 pips.
  • Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 70 pips and leave the remaining contracts until the strong resistance level at 25.00.

Best-selling entry points

  • Entering a sell order pending order from the 20.00 level.
  • The best points for placing a stop loss close the highest level of 20.15.
  • Move the stop loss to the entry area and follow the profit when the price moves by 50 pips.
  • Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 70 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the support level at 19.75.

The TRY/USD stabilized during early trading today, Thursday, near its lowest level ever. As investors await the interest rate decision in the country, which is expected to be announced by the Central Bank of Turkey during European trading today. It is widely expected that the central bank will fix the interest rate in the country at levels of 8.5%, after a series of cuts initiated by the central bank since the last quarter of last year, to drop the interest rate at the desire of the country’s President, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, from levels of 14.5% to single digits. levels are current.

The lira recorded a set of losses over the course of the current month, coinciding with the launch of the elections in the country, as the chances of the current President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to retain his position expand after his progress in the results of the first round and the support of the candidate who came in third place for Erdogan in the run-off. The pessimistic outlook towards the Turkish lira escalated amid expectations that the dollar would record levels of 29 liras by the end of this year, especially with the Turkish president's continued promises to adhere to the stimulus monetary policy (within Erdogan's unconventional policy) with the aim of increasing production and raising the volume of exports.

TRY/USD Technical Analysis

On the technical front, the dollar pair against the Turkish lira maintained its gains, as the pair settled near its new all-time high, after the pair touched the correct number at 20 lira. The general trend in which the US dollar is moving against the lira, which accelerated before the start of the elections, continued. Currently, the price broke the upper border of the ascending channel on the four-hour time frame, with the price closing above the upper border of the channel, and the price is trading inside a lower price channel on a smaller time frame.

At the same time, the pair is trading above the support levels, which are concentrated at 19.80 and 19.70, respectively. The price also settles below the resistance levels that are concentrated at 20.00 and 20.50. The price is moving above the moving averages 50, 100, and 200 on the daily timeframe, as well as on the 4-hour and 60-minute timeframes, in a sign of the strong bullish general trend. Because of the expected changes in monetary policy after the elections, any decline in the dollar against the lira represents an opportunity to buy back again. Please adhere to the figures in the recommendation, while maintaining capital management.

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Christopher Lewis

Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex for several years. He writes about Forex for many online publications, including his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy.