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TRY/USD Forecast: Increasing Government Spending is Criticized

On the technical level, the USD/TRY settled to trade near its highest levels ever, after the pair touched levels of 19.58 liras per dollar.

Today's recommendation on the TRY/USD

Risk 0.50%.

Best buying entry points

  • Entering a buy deal with a pending order from the 19.30 level.
  • Place a close stop loss point below the 18.99 level.
  • Move the stop loss to the entry area and follow the profit with the price moving by 50 points.
  • Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 70 points and leave the rest of the contracts until the strong resistance level at 19.50.

Best-selling entry points

  • Entering a sell deal with a pending order from the 19.50 level.
  • The best points for placing a stop loss close at the 19.65 level.
  • Move the stop loss to the entry area and follow the profit with the price moving by 50 points.
  • Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 70 points and leave the rest of the contracts until the support level at 19.05.

The pair USD/TRY settled near its highest level ever recorded during this week's trading. Election campaigning continued as Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced on Tuesday that the country would raise the salaries of nearly 700,000 public sector workers by up to 45% over the next two years.

Erdogan said that "Within this collective bargaining agreement, we will raise wages by 45%, including the welfare share, thus raising the minimum wage for public sector workers to 15,000 liras ($768)."

The markets widely criticized the measure, saying that it may lead to a further spiral in wage prices, where Turkish inflation is still strong at around 44%. will increase inflation later in the year. Erdogan's announcement comes just days before Turkey's general election scheduled for Sunday, May 14, where voters will elect a new president as well as 600 deputies. Erdogan will be opposed by opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu, who received support from his six-party coalition in March.

TRY/USD Technical Analysis

On the technical level, the USD/TRY settled to trade near its highest levels ever, after the pair touched levels of 19.58 liras per dollar. The dollar maintained its increasing gains against the lira which is declining at a slow pace. At the moment, the price is trading within the range of the rising price channel on the four-hour time frame, the closing price could not be higher than it, and the price is trading above the support levels which are concentrated at 19.40 and 19.34, respectively.

At the same time, the price stabilizes below the 19.58 and 20.00 resistance levels. The price is moving above the 50, 100, and 200 moving averages on the daily time frame, as well as on the four-hour time frame and the 60-minute time frame, indicating a strong general upward trend. Due to the difference in monetary policy and the economic situation for Turkey and the expected changes in monetary policy after the elections, any drop in the dollar against the lira represents an opportunity to buy again. Please adhere to the numbers in the recommendation while maintaining capital management.

USD/TRY

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Amir Issa
About Amir Issa
Economic editor , more than 12 years experience in the global financial markets and in the field of currency and metals trading. I supervised on many sites related to investment, finance and training in the field of forex and global exchanges.
 

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