Bullish view
- Buy the GBP/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.2650.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.2450.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bearish view
- Set a sell-stop at 1.2550 and a take-profit at 1.2450.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.2650.
The GBP/USD price jumped to the highest level since June 9 2022 as the recent rally continued. It rose to a high of 1.2570, which was ~21% above the lowest point in December. This makes sterling one of the best-performing currencies in the developed world.
Federal Reserve decision
The GBP/USD pair has been in a strong bullish trend in the past few months even as concerns about the British economy continued. Most recent reports have warned that the British economy will have the slowest growth rate in the developed countries.
The GBP/USD pair will be little changed on Monday since the UK market will be closed because of a bank holiday. Therefore, focus among investors will be the upcoming Federal Reserve decision scheduled on Wednesday.
Economists expect the Fed will deliver the final interest rate hike of this cycle. Precisely, they expect that the bank will hike by 0.25% and then point to a strategic pause. However, because of the slow collapse of First Republic Bank, there is a likelihood that the bank will consider pausing its hikes. The decision by the bank will be the biggest catalyst for the GBP/USD pair.
There will be several important decisions this week. On Monday, the main data will come from the United States. Economists expect the data by the ISM to show that the manufacturing PMI rose from 46.3 to 46.7. The data from S&P Global is expected to show that the manufacturing PMI jumped to 50.4. A PMI reading above 50 is a sign that the sector is improving.
The other key catalysts for the GBP/USD pair will be the upcoming UK house price index (HPI) scheduled for Tuesday and the latest JOLTs job openings numbers.
GBP/USD technical analysis
The GBP/USD pair has been in a strong bullish trend recently. On the daily chart, it managed to move above the important resistance point at 1.2570, where it failed to move several times this year. It has moved above the 25-day and 50-day exponential moving averages while the MACD has moved above the neutral point.
Therefore, it seems like bulls have prevailed, which will push it to the next key resistance point at 1.2650. A move below the support at 1.2450 will invalidate the bullish view.
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