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Bearish view
- Sell the EUR/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.0645.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.0775.
- 1-3 days.
Bullish view
- Set a buy-stop at 1.0755 and a take-profit at 1.0850.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.1.090.
The EUR/USD exchange rate retreated on Monday morning as the market reflected on the debt ceiling progress in the United States. The pair dropped to a low of 1.0705, the lowest level since March 21st. This means that the euro has erased over 3.3% from its highest level this year.
US debt ceiling deal
The biggest catalyst for the EUR/USD pair was the debt ceiling deal between Democrats and Republicans during the weekend. In separate statements, President Joe Biden and Speaker McCarthy said that they were hopeful that Congress will pass the new deal.
Therefore, this means that the US will not run out of money on June 5th and that it will not default on its debts. As a result, there is a likelihood that the market will now start embracing riskier assets as the biggest risk in the market fades.
The forex market will see thin volumes on Monday since the US and UK markets will be closed for holidays.
Looking ahead, there will be several important economic numbers in the market this week. On Tuesday, Spain will publish its estimate of May consumer inflation data. On the same day, the European Commission will publish the latest consumer and business confidence data.
The most important data on Tuesday will be the upcoming US consumer confidence data. Economists polled by Reuters believe that the confidence figure dropped to 99 in May from the previous 101.3. If this estimate is accurate, it will be the first time it has moved below 100 since July last year. Consumer spending is a crucial number because of the important role that consumer spending has to the economy.
The other important EUR/USD news of the week will be the latest non-farm payrolls (NFP) data scheduled for Friday. The flash EU inflation data will come out on Thursday.
EUR/USD technical analysis
The EUR/USD exchange rate has been in a bearish trend after peaking at 1.1095 in April. It has moved below the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement level on the four-hour chart. The pair has also dropped below the 50-period moving average and the Ichimoku cloud.
Further, the MACE and the Awesome Oscillator moved below the neutral point. Therefore, the pair has more downside to go in the near term. If this happens, the next key level to watch will be at 1.0652, the 78.2% retracement level.
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