Bearish view
- Sell the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 26,600.
- Add a stop-loss at 30,500.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bullish view
- Set a buy-stop at 28,800 and a take-profit at 30,000.
- Add a stop-loss at 26,000.
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies continued slipping as the recent bullish momentum faded. The BTC/USD pair dropped to a low of 28,000, much lower than the year-to-date high of 31,041. Other major coins like Ethereum and XRP have also pulled back.
FRC collapse impact on crypto
The BTC/USD pair drifted downwards as investors embraced a risk-off sentiment following the collapse of First Republic Bank. The bank was seized by the FDIC, which then sold it to JP Morgan. As a result, all deposits were saved.
However, there are concerns about the health of the banking sector in the US since many regional banks hold billions of dollars worth of toxic commercial real estate debt. Therefore, there is a likelihood that other banks will collapse, which explains why regional bank stocks dropped sharply on Monday.
The next key mover for the BTC/USD pair will be the upcoming interest rate decision by the Federal Reserve. Analysts expect the bank to be a bit cautious in this meeting since a more aggressive tone could break more things.
Therefore, the Fed will likely hike interest rates by another 25 basis points and then point to a strategic pause. Some analysts expect that the bank will decide to leave rates unchanged for a while. A shift in tone by the Fed will be a bullish catalyst for Bitcoin.
Meanwhile, FRC’s collapse was also a bullish sign for Bitcoin prices since it makes Bitcoin a good alternative asset to hold. Bitcoin managed to do well after Silicon Valley Bank and Signature collapsed in March.
Analysts are turning bullish on Bitcoin despite the recent pullback. In an article, Bloomberg estimated that BTC could jump as high as $105,000 in the next few months. The report cited the fact that Bitcoin has risen in the past four straight months. Historically, such moves have led to a 200% gain.
BTC/USD technical analysis
The BTC/USD pair has been in a bearish trend in the past few days. It struggled to move above the key resistance point at 30,000 on Monday and Sunday. The pair moved below the important level at 29,222, the highest point on March 30. It has also declined below the 50-period moving average and the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement level.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved below the neutral point at 50. Therefore, the pair willl likely continue falling as sellers target the key support at 26,600, the 38.2% retracement level.
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