Speculators who are pursuing the USD/TRY are certainly being entertained. I do not write that mockingly, because any trader who decides to pursue the USD/TRY likely understands the amount of volatility that can be demonstrated within the currency pair and is hopefully fully prepared. The USD/TRY as of this writing is testing all-time highs, this as it bounces around the 19.42750 ratio, surpassing highs seen yesterday.
Speculatively the USD/TRY is not a One Way Ride Upwards
Before well-intentioned but unprepared traders decide to pursue the USD/TRY they must know two important things. One, the USD/TRY has been within the grasp of an upwards trend for a long time and this is not likely to stop until the current Turkish government changes its rather questionable economic and fiscal policies which hurt the Turkish Lira and its global standing as an asset. Two, and very importantly, just because the Turkish Lira is losing value consistently to the USD, it doesn’t mean it is an easy Forex pair to trade.
Violent Downward Moves Unexpectedly Happen in the USD/TRY Frequently
While the upwards momentum of the USD/TRY is certainly enticing from a speculative point of view, the USD/TRY suffers from violent downward reversals seemingly developing without any notice. Trading the USD/TRY is not easy because the natural tendency to look for upside movement and bet on buying positions seems like the best bet. Movement higher is mostly steady and incremental, but it can often be slow. In other words, the movement of the USD/TRY higher is less likely to provide quick-hitting results that offer a solid reward for traders who need to get in and out of Forex positions. Traders who actually wager on downside momentum with conservative leverage being used because moves are faster, can get a bigger reward via sudden selloffs in the USD/TRY because the downward momentum is often larger, but this isn’t easy to attain either.
It is hard perhaps to imagine, but wagering on the USD/TRY for upside action and the desire to win big needs more leverage, than betting on downside action where the moves are frequently bigger but much more dangerous because of the tendency of the USD/TRY to reverse higher again. If you are betting on downside movement in the USD/TRY you must use very limited leverage. And no matter what, if you are a speculator in the USD/TRY you should be using entry price, stop loss and take profit orders to take advantage of the currency pair and you need to understand you can lose money quickly.
- U.S. data via growth numbers from the Advance GDP will be published today, better than anticipated numbers could spur the USD/TRY higher.
- The USD/TRY is trading at record heights and this may continue to be seen, but wagering on the USD/TRY should be done with great care.
Turkish Lira Short-Term Outlook:
Current Resistance: 19.43200
Current Support: 19.42250
High Target: 19.44100
Low Target: 19.40300
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