Bullish view
- Buy the EUR/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.1100.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.0800.
- Timeline: 1 day.
Bearish view
- Set a sell-stop at 1.1000 and a take-profit at 1.0900.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.1100.
The EUR/USD exchange rate continued rallying as the US dollar sell-off slide resumed. The pair jumped to a high of 1.0500, the highest point since April 14 of this year. This price was a few points above last week’s low of 1.0908.
US consumer confidence data ahead
The US dollar index resumed its downward moves on Monday after recovering modestly last week. It retreated to $101, the lowest level since Apri 14 of this year. There are several reasons why the dollar is falling, including the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will start pivoting in the coming months.
Economists expect that the Fed will hike rates by 0.25% in March and then pause since the economy is slowing down. Corporate earnings have also declined, with the average decline being the worst since the second quarter of 2020.
The US dollar has also declined because of the potential for de-dollarization as more countries move to fight the dollar hegemony. BRICS countries are deliberating on how to use an alternative to the US dollar for their trade. However, shifting from the greenback is significantly difficult.
Meanwhile, the EUR/USD pair has risen because of expectations that the European Central Bank will be more hawkish than the Fed. Expectations are that the ECB has at least three more rate hikes to implement before it peaks.
There will be no economic data from Europe on Tuesday. Therefore, the pair will react to key economic numbers from the US. The key number to watch will be the US consumer confidence data by the Conference Board. Analysts expect the data to show that consumer confidence dropped from 104.2 in March to 104.0 in April. The US will also publish the latest new home sales and house price index data.
EUR/USD technical analysis
The EUR/USD pair has been in a strong bullish trend in the past few days. It has managed to bounce back after it tested the lower side of the ascending channel shown in red. The pair has jumped above the 25-period and 50-period moving averages. Further, the two lines and the histogram of the MACD have risen above the neutral point. The Money Flow Index (MFI) has jumped above the neutral level of 50.
Therefore, the pair will likely continue rising in the next few days as buyers target the key resistance point at 1.1011. This view will be confirmed if the pair jumps above the key resistance point at 1.1066, the highest point on April 14.
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