Bearish view
- Sell the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 26,525.
- Add a stop-loss at 30,000.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bullish view
- Set a buy-stop at 28,500 and a take-profit at 30,000.
- Add a stop-loss at 27000.
Bitcoin had a strong performance in March as investors rushed to 'safe havens' following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank. The BTC/USD price jumped from a low of 19,725 on March 10 to a high of 29,135, the highest point since June last year.
Bitcoin rally running out of steam
The BTC/USD pair jumped sharply in March even as the financial sector came under the biggest strain since the Global Financial Crisis of 2008/9. Silicon Valley Bank, Signature, and Silvergate became the biggest banks to collapse in years.
All these banks had a role in the crypto industry. Silvergate provided banking solutions to some of the biggest players in the crypto industry. Silicon Valley Bank, which was focused on providing banking solutions to technology companies, also had a role in the crypto sector. Its most important role was that it provided banking solutions to Circle, the creator of USD Coin.
Therefore, Bitcoin rose as investors moved to safe havens. Some traders believe that BTC is a safe haven because of its role as digital gold. Gold itself jumped to over $2,000 during the month.
Bitcoin's recovery coincided with the dollar sell-off. The US dollar index dropped from the year-to-date high of $125 to ~$100. It dropped as investors predicted the next actions of the Federal Reserve.
The BTC/USD pair also rose even as American regulators continued focusing on the industry. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) sued Binance and its CEO for offering derivatives in the US without registering with the agency.
In the same month, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) sent a letter to Coinbase, warning it of its staking solutions. Therefore, Bitcoin's price action was a reflection that traders believe that the coin will continue rising despite the challenges.
BTC/USD forecast
The BTC/USD pair had a strong performance in March as it jumped to a high of 29,135. On the four-hour chart, the pair seems like it has found a strong resistance that is preventing it from moving to the psychological level of 30,000. It remains slightly above the 50-period moving average while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is forming a bearish divergence pattern.
Bitcoin has also formed a double-top pattern. Therefore, the outlook for the pair is bearish, with the next key level to watch is at the double top's neckline at 26,514.
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