Bullish view
- Buy the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 30,500.
- Add a stop-loss at 28,500.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bearish view
- Set a sell-stop at 28,800 and a take-profit at 27,500.
- Add a stop-loss at 30,000.
Bitcoin has lost momentum as investors reflect on the hawkish statement by Fed’s Christopher Waller on the next actions. It also retreated as the US dollar index jumped and as traders started taking profits after the recent rally. The BTC/USD pair dropped to a low of 29,365, the lowest level since April 10 of this year.
US dollar index rally
The BTC/USD pair retreat coincided with the strong comeback of the US dollar. The closely-watched US dollar index bounced back from last week’s low of $100.3 to $101.80 after Chris Waller warned that the Fed has more work to do in its battle against inflation.
His statement came two days after the Federal Reserve published minutes of its March meeting. Those minutes showed that many Fed officials were concerned about the state of the economy because of the banking crisis.
As a result, some of those officials wanted the bank to pause its rate hikes in March. Therefore, most analysts predicted that the Fed would start pausing its rate hike cycle in the coming months. An end to interest rate hikes will be bullish for Bitcoin and other risky assets like stocks.
The BTC/USD pair also declined after the latest bank earnings from the United States. Results so far showed that most big banks are doing well, helped by higher interest rates and increased deposits after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank.
In the past few weeks, Bitcoin has moved in the opposite direction as banking stocks. It jumped sharply after the collapse of Signature and SVB.
BTC/USD technical analysis
Bitcoin has been in a strong upward trend in the past few months, which saw it climb to the highest level since June last year. It has now pulled back and moved below the important support level at 30,000. It has also crossed the 25-period and 50-period moving averages while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped to the oversold level.
The pair has also made a break and retest pattern, which is usually a sign of continuation. Therefore, while more downside is possible, the pair will likely have a bullish breakout in the near term. If this happens, it will likely retest the year-to-date high of 30,965. On the other hand, a move below the support at 28,500 will invalidate the bullish view.
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