Bearish view
- Sell the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 22,600.
- Add a stop-loss at 26,000.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bullish view
- Set a buy-stop at 24,800 and a take-profit at 26,000.
- Add a stop-loss at 22,000.
The BTC/USD price staged a strong recovery, making it one of the best-performing major financial assets. It jumped to a high of 24,675, the highest point since February 21st. Focus will remain on the banking sector and the upcoming US inflation data.
Federal Reserve backstop
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies made a strong recovery after the Federal Reserve announced a major backstop for the financial sector. In a statement, the Federal Reserve said that it would backstop Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank.
These were important banks that catered for technology and crypto companies. Signature Bank was known for being the bank of choice for many companies in the industry. SBB, on the other hand, banked for many technology companies.
Circle was one of the company’s clients. The company is known for creating USD Coin, the second-biggest stablecoin, which is valued at over $50 billion. Circle had over $3.3 billion banked in SVB. As such, the Fed's backstop means that the company will have access to its funds,which helped the USDC coin regain its peg.
The BTC/USD price also jumped as the US dollar index retreated. After rising to a high of $105 last week, the DXY index pulled back to $103.18. This price action happened as investors changed their view of what to expect in the coming meetings. Analysts, including those at ING and Goldman Sachs believe that the Fed will hike rates by 0.25% or not hike at all.
Bitcoin's surge also coincided with the strong performance of the stock market. After retreating in the first hours of the session, all indices turned green for the day. The Dow Jones rose by over 120 points while the Nasdaq 100 index jumped by 141 points. Bitcoin has a close correlation with Nasdaq 100 and other indices.
The BTC/USD price will next react to the upcoming US inflation numbers. These numbers will put the Fed in a bind if they come out above estimates.
BTC/USD technical analysis
The BTC/USD price jumped sharply as it moved from last week’s low of 19,559. It managed to move above the second resistance level of the Woodie pivot point. The pair also jumped above the key resistance level at 24,675, the highest level on February 23rd. It has moved above all moving averages while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) rose above the overbought level.
Therefore, the pair will likely take a breather as sellers target the next key support at 22,600, the highest point on March 6. The stop-loss of this trend will be at 26,000.
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