Bullish view
- Buy the AUD/USD pair and take a profit at 0.6800.
- Add a stop-loss at 0.6610.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bearish view
- Set a sell-stop at 0.6665 and a take-profit at 0.6580.
- Add a stop-loss at 0.6800.
The AUD/USD exchange rate darted upwards as the US dollar index (DXY) continued retreating. The pair rose to a high of 0.6712 as the DXY moved below $102. It has jumped by ~1.2% from the lowest point this year.
US dollar index retreat
The US dollar index has pulled back in the past few days as concerns about the banking sector eased. Most banking stocks have bounced back this week after going through a major shake-off on Friday. On Monday, Citizens Bank agreed to buy the remnants of Silicon Valley Bank.
The US dollar has also declined as analysts assess the next actions of the Federal Reserve. Some analysts, including those from ING and Doubleline believe that the bank will need to slash rates later this year. They worry that the economy could be heading toward a recession because of the inverted yield curve.
Other analysts, especially from Blackrock, believe that the Fed will stay the course and deliver several rate hikes later this year. This view was supported by the relatively strong consumer confidence data that came out on Tuesday. According to the Conference Board, consumer confidence rose modestly in March.
The only key economic data from the United States scheduled for Wednesday will be pending home sales. Economists expect the data to show that sales dropped in February after rising in January.
The AUD/USD pair also rose even after the relatively weak economic numbers from Australia. On Tuesday, data by the Australia Bureau of Statistics (ABS) showed that the country’s retail sales remained under pressure in February.
The volume of sales fell to 0.2% from the previous month’s 1.8%. It remained at the same level as in October last year despite the country’s slight population growth. Additional data published on Wednesday showed that inflation remains above the RBA target of 2.0%.
AUD/USD technical analysis
The AUD/USD pair drifted upwards and remained above the ascending trendline shown in red. It has moved slightly above the 25-period moving average. Further, the pair is stuck at the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement level while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) jumped above the neutral level of 50.
The pair is also approaching the upper side of the ascending channel. Therefore, the pair will likely continue rising as buyers target the upper side of this channel at 0.6775.
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