The AUD/USD exchange rate experienced a slight fall during Friday's trading session, which was not unexpected given the formation of a couple of shooting stars in the previous two days. Traders will be closely watching the 0.67 level as it has been important several times in the past. However, it's worth noting that the Australian dollar is heavily influenced by risk and there are several global concerns that could work against the value of the currency. Remember, the US dollar is used as a safety currency, and that’s one thing they should keep in the back of your mind.
Choppy Volatility Ahead
Despite these concerns, the Australian dollar has shown resilience in the past, with the market avoiding a breakdown several times. As a result, traders should expect choppy volatility in the market. The 0.67 level was previously a support level just a few weeks ago, with resistance at the 0.68 level. The 50-Day EMA sitting at the top of this noise level and dropping lower is a technical signal that many traders will use as a directional indicator. That being said, macroeconomics will continue to see traders worrying about a ton of different issues, and therefore not only will the Australian dollar be noisy, but most currency pairs will be as well.
- If the market does break down from here, the 0.6550 level should offer some support, given that the market has previously bounced back from this level.
- However, if the market were to break down below this level, it could lead to a significant drop in the market, possibly down to the 0.65 level, or even the 0.63 level.
- Despite the market's attempts to bounce back, it's hard to ignore the fact that the market is still facing several challenges.
Overall, the Australian dollar is not currently in a bullish position, and this is unlikely to change anytime soon. However, this does not necessarily mean that we are looking at some type of meltdown. It’s more or less a short-term “pay the rally” type of environment that we see. Unless the market takes out the 0.68 level on a daily close, traders should expect the market to remain in a consolidation phase. While there may be some choppy volatility ahead, it's important to keep an eye on the support levels and the global concerns involving growth and higher interest rates that are influencing the market's direction.
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