USD/JPY: Higher Trend Develops Teeth and Bites Short Sellers

The USD/JPY is trading near the 134.000 level as of this writing with rather a fast price action in gear. Speculators should be mindful that it is a U.S. banking holiday today, and this will cause lighter volume later today which could lead to volatility until U.S. financial houses return tomorrow.

However, the more than two-week trend of the USD/JPY climbing cannot be mistaken. The currency pair moving upwards has been influenced by the notion the U.S. Federal Reserve is going to remain aggressive regarding monetary policy.

Inflation reports from the U.S. last week poured bullish fuel onto the USD/JPY as the Consumer Price Index and the Producer Price Index reports proved stubborn prices remain steadfast.  The rhetoric from the U.S. central bank said it would continue to raise interest rates on the 1^st of February was met by skeptics who didn’t believe the Federal Reserve could remain hawkish.

However, stronger job numbers that followed on the 3^rd and the additional stubborn inflation statistics have essentially cemented the U.S central bank’s monetary policy right or wrong. Later this week growth numbers will come from the U.S. which is certain to cause volatility in the USD/JPY too. Short sellers of the USD/JPY have likely found speculation costly.

Near-Term Choppiness as Equilibrium in the USD/JPY is Sought

Having climbed over the 134.000 level and showing the ability to sustain higher values is no small feat for the USD/JPY. The solid bullish trend which has developed in the currency pair since early February is now challenging values seen in the first week of January.  Last Friday’s high of nearly 135.100 touched heights not seen since the 20^th of December. The USD/JPY has reversed lower since attaining higher values before going into the weekend, but nervous trading conditions have not vanished.

Traders should watch the 134.000 ratios with interest to see if it remains a magnate in the near term. Due to the absence of U.S. financial houses today, some choppiness should be expected, but traders should keep in mind fragile behavioral sentiment is likely to continue with the U.S. Gross Domestic Product numbers coming on Thursday.

USD/JPY is perhaps 0verbought, but the value of the Currency Pair is an indication of Nervousness

• The USD/JPY may test a range between the 133.750 to 134.550 levels over the next day as financial houses try to find fair market prices.
• The trend higher in the USD/JPY could receive an extra boost of buying power later this week.
• Preliminary GDP numbers will be released this coming Thursday, if growth statistics prove stronger than anticipated this could ignite more buying of the USD/JPY.

Traders need to be cautious over the near term. If traders want to wager on direction, the trend higher has certainly been strong and demonstrated stamina, but caution is advised.  The USD/JPY is likely to be choppy as financial houses position before Thursday’s important U.S growth data, until then wagering on the currency pair should remain focused on technical support and resistance levels which may produce a bumpy range.

USD/JPY Short-Term Outlook:

Current Resistance: 134.345

Current Support: 133.920

High Target: 134.960

Low Target: 133.790