- The NASDAQ 100 initially dipped during the trading session on Thursday but continues to find support near the 12,500 level. The market also has the 200-Day EMA underneath, showing support as well.
- Because of this, I think the market will continue to find plenty of buyers but given enough time we would have 2 take a look at this as a situation where the market will continue to move based on the idea of whether or not the Wall Street traders believe that the Federal Reserve is going to tighten monetary policy, and of course what the latest economic announcement is, and of course earnings.
- However, it should be noted that Wall Street has studied a fabulous job of ignoring reality, and I don’t expect that to change anytime soon.
If we break above the 12,800 level, then it’s possible that we could go to the 13,000 level, and then possibly even the 13,200 level. After that, we have the 13,600 level, which was a significant peak for the market. You could also make an argument that we are forming a bit of a bullish flag, so that comes into the picture as well. The bullish flag of course is something that a lot of traders will be paying close attention to as the market likes those patterns. It’s an obvious pattern, and therefore a lot of traders will be sucked into the trade.
Be Cautious With your Position Size
Alternatively, think this is a situation where you will continue to see a lot of noise in this market and see the need to be very cautious with your position size. The volatility will more likely than not continue to be a major issue, so with that being said I think that it is probably only a matter of time before we have to make a bigger move.
If we were to turn around and break down below the 200-Day EMA, the 12,000 level comes into the picture as major support from not only a structural standpoint but also the psychology attached to a figure like that. Either way, it looks like everybody is more than willing to ignore higher interest rates and inflation, as we have seen time and time again. All things being equal, the market looks as if we are going to continue to see quite a bit of “buy on the dip” behavior, but anything underneath there, the 12,000 level, could get disastrous.
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