NASDAQ 100 Forecast: Gives Up Early Gain yet Again

• The NASDAQ 100 initially tried to rally during the trading session but gave up gain yet again as it looks like we are in the process of forming some type of topping pattern.
• Because of this, the market is going to continue to be very noisy, and therefore I think you need to be cautious about what happens next.
• If we do break down below the 12,400 level, it’s very likely that this market could go looking toward the 200-Day EMA underneath, which is currently sitting right around the 4100 level.

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Breaking down below that level then opens up the possibility of a move down to the 50-Day EMA, which is close to the 11,750 level. The area between the 200-Day EMA and the 50-Day EMA is quite often an area of extreme noise, so do not expect that to be an easy ride. If we were to break down below the 50-Day EMA, this thing could unwind rather rapidly.

Starting to Get Nervous

The alternate scenario of course is that we break through all of the highs of the last couple of days. In that scenario, the 13,000 level would be an area that we would have to pay close attention to because breaking above it offers the possibility of a huge move higher. In that move, we would probably see the NASDAQ 100 pick up another 500 points or so. That being said, keep in mind that we are in the midst of earnings season, so it’s a bit dicey to anticipate that type of move in this environment. I think we will continue to see a lot of concern expressed out there, and therefore we need to understand that this is a scenario where the market is probably going to sell first and ask questions later.

The market continues to have an overhang of ugliness, and even though we tried everything we could to rally during the session after the initial selloff, the selling came in and overwhelmed us in quite a drastic fashion. We did not break down below the support, at least not yet, but it certainly looks like that is probably only a matter of time with this, I think you got a situation where the market participants are starting to get more and more nervous as economic reality may be showing up.

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