Bearish view
- Sell the EUR/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.0600.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.0792 (Feb 9 high).
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bullish view
- Set a buy-stop at 1.0762 and a take-profit at 1.0850.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.0660.
The EUR/USD price rebounded modestly as the mood in the financial market improved ahead of the important American consumer inflation numbers. It rose to 1.0725, which was a few points above last week’s low of 1.0656.
Market mood improves
The mood in the market improved on Monday as the focus remained on the upcoming economic numbers from the United States. As a result, the US dollar index retreated slightly to $103.34 while American stock indices rose. The Dow Jones and the S&P 500 indices rose by 270 and 35 points, respectively. In most periods, the EUR/USD pair tends to rise when American indices are doing well.
The main mover for the EUR/USD is the upcoming American inflation numbers, which will set the tone for the week. After dropping for six straight months, economists believe that inflation rose slightly in January. They cite the stubbornly high service inflation combined with the strong jobs market.
A higher-than-expected inflation reading, coming a few days after the US released strong jobs numbers, means that the Fed will point to more hikes. With interest rates standing at between 4.50% and 4.75%, some analysts have started pointing towards rates rising to 7%.
However, the yield curve has continued to invert, sending signals that a recession is about to happen. If that recession happens, there is a likelihood that the Fed will reverse some of its interest rate increases.
Meanwhile, the EUR/USD rose after an upbeat economic forecast from Europe. In a statement, the European Commission said that the EU’s economy will expand by 0.8% while the eurozone will expand by 0.9%. It cited the relatively low energy prices and higher productivity. The Eurostat will publish the second estimate of the EU’s fourth-quarter GDP data.
EUR/USD prediction
The EUR to USD exchange rate found important support at 1.0663. It seems to be forming a double-bottom pattern whose neckline was at 1.0792. On the 4H chart, the pair’s downward trend is still supported by the 25-day and 50-day moving averages. It also remains solidly below the ascending channel.
Therefore, while a double bottom seems to be forming, the outlook of the pair remains bearish. This could see bears flip the support at 1.0663 into a resistance level. As such, the pair could still move below the psychological level at 1.0600.
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